During the European trading session on February 11th, gold prices remained stable. After soaring to a historic high of $2942.78 per ounce, gold prices have fallen, indicating the possibility of a short-term correction. The early uptrend was mainly driven by safe haven demand, as the market was concerned about US President Trump's aggressive trade policies. However, the early decline triggered a potential bearish closing reversal pattern, which could lead to a short-term correction.

The rapid rise of gold has put it in a severely overbought state, and some analysts warn that the market may overheat. RSI has been in the overbought zone for several consecutive days, triggering expectations of a short-term correction. In addition, the gap between the recent high and the 50 day moving average ($2702.43 per ounce) is unusually large, and historical data shows that this situation usually indicates a possible market correction.

If the reversal pattern is confirmed today, gold may fall in the next 2-3 days, with key support levels including:

Small support level: 2888.52, 2857.49, 2836.67

Strong support level: 2,763.34

Trade conflict concerns stimulate safe haven demand

The recent rise in gold is mainly driven by Trump's decision to implement a 25% unified tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which has intensified market concerns about a multilateral trade war. This policy does not have exemptions and is expected to affect global markets and may push up inflationary pressures in the United States.

The uncertainty of Trump's policies in the market has increased the safe haven appeal of gold, and some traders are focusing on $3000/ounce as the next key target. US gold futures currently maintain a slight premium, trading at $2936.10 per ounce, higher than the current level of spot gold.

Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Data Focus

Traders are closely monitoring the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Wednesday's US inflation data to find clues about future interest rate movements. According to a Reuters survey, if rising import costs push up inflation, the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts until the next quarter.

If Powell hints at a more hawkish stance or if inflation data unexpectedly rises, the upward momentum of gold may be hindered. Higher interest rates often weaken the attractiveness of gold, as gold itself does not generate interest, and rising borrowing costs can reduce its competitiveness. On the contrary, if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance or inflation data is lower than expected, gold may continue to rise.

Gold price prediction: will it rise again after a pullback?

Although gold is still in a strong upward trend overall, today's reversal signal increases the risk of short-term correction. If the gold price closes lower, traders should pay attention to the key support levels mentioned above, as there may be a technical correction. However, in the context of ongoing trade tensions and inflation risks, any pullback may be seen as a buying opportunity.

If the gold price successfully breaks through $2942.78 per ounce, the focus will shift back to the upward trend, and the target level of $3000 per ounce will become more realistic. Prior to this, traders need to be vigilant about market volatility and short-term selling pressure.

Spot Gold Daily Chart