Will gold continue? Is there a possibility of peaking in the short term?

Firstly, this round of gold appreciation began at $2784 on December 18th of last year, accompanied by a small correction along the way, but it was also a three in one trend. This upward trend erupted after two months of brewing, and after repeated long and short competitions, the bulls emerged victorious.

There are different reasons for the rise, such as geopolitical risks, economic policies, and trade tariffs. Most of them are just the result of toppling down and looking back for the reasons after the rise. The fundamental logic is only one: the trust crisis of the US dollar, and gold is the only anchor in the eyes of the public to replace the US dollar.

As long as the trust in the US dollar is not completely eliminated, the bull market of gold cannot be said to have peaked. The only risk now is that it has risen too high, and this high is relative. Comparing past prices with the present, looking back at future prices, it is actually not high. This has been repeatedly verified by past market trends.

The general direction of gold is still upward and unchanged. $2800 is not the top, and $2900 is also not the top. My ultimate goal for this year is $3318, corresponding to a Chinese yuan price of around 768-770 yuan. However, there is no market that only rises and does not fall, and it is impossible to continue to rise to the final target point. In the process, I need to accept temporary adjustments.

See the top? It's still a bit early to talk about the peak now. In the past two years, anyone who believed that gold was going to fall or continued to be bearish on gold has been slapped, and those who made a profit from the price difference back and forth may not necessarily enjoy the dividends of the bull market. Only those who firmly held onto it and did not waver ultimately seized this round of market trend.

The non farm payroll data, CPI inflation, and Federal Reserve monetary policy have only one purpose: to replicate the performance of the US economy, Musk's bold reforms and cuts in government spending will inevitably trigger confrontation between vested interests, exacerbate market uncertainty, and Kennedy, who last attempted to change the US Department of Defense through "reform," ultimately withdrew with regret.

So, I believe that due to the significant increase in gold prices during this period, from $2580 to $2940, a rise of $360, it is normal to adjust the price by $100-150 midway. There is no need to overly interpret the short-term adjustment market. The short-term profit margin within a day actually focuses on the current situation, while the long-term holding focuses on the influencing factors, not the price. Price is the result derived from influencing factors, and we cannot only focus on the results, but on the reasons.

Let's talk about today's gold market:

Firstly, the typical mnemonic is to accelerate the upward trend during Tuesday's trading session; The sharp rise in the morning session is difficult to continue, and if Europe breaks through the bottom, the US will fall. That is to say, the market opened early in the morning and accelerated its rise. The possibility of the market continuing on that day is very small. Yesterday morning, it surged from around $2900 to $2940, compressing the market trend of another rise in the European and American markets. This kind of market correction must be cautious because it is difficult for bulls to continue. I believe I deeply appreciate the short positions arranged in yesterday's market and the timely exit of many friends according to the mnemonic.

After hitting $2942, the gold price continued to fall to $2882, a drop of $60. The US market then launched a second counterattack at $2909, indicating that the bulls are still strong in buying. However, they continued to weaken in the early morning and this morning, testing the support in the 2880-82 area. The gains and losses here will determine the short-term direction. We cannot conclude that the rise of gold has ended just by a candlestick. What I mean is the end of the overall direction.

Now, I believe the key point is at the position of 2880. If we fall here, it will lead to a trend of Asian market decline, European market continuation, and a rebound before the US market. If we see a high, we will be short. The key to whether this formula can occur lies in the European market. Only if we continue to fall in the afternoon and break through the support below 2880, we will have a chance to be short of gold before the US market. Conversely, we should not rush to chase short in the support area of 2880. Instead, we can test the effectiveness of the support here through short-term long positions.

Today, my point of view is to first test the rebound of buying long within the range of 2887-85, and then continue until the US market when it weakens in the afternoon. After the rebound, adjust the position of buying long and sell short, especially for intraday trading bands. There are two positions worth paying attention to, 2905 and 2915 US dollars. Short positions are mainly short-term bands, not the main focus.