On Wednesday (February 12th) during the European trading session, the Japanese yen weakened against other major currencies as market concerns over global trade tensions and inflation intensified. The USD/JPY has risen for the fourth consecutive day.

On the technical chart, the USD/JPY rose to 153.72 after confirming a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above its restricted 200 day moving average (EMA). This at least marks the beginning of a potential new upward cycle at present.

The positive and negative trends of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillation Index reflect an improvement in buying intention, although the former is still some distance away from the 50 neutral line, indicating that the market is still waiting for confirmation.

Perhaps some patience is needed before the price breaks through the key resistance level of 154.30. This is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level that rose from September to January, the upper track of the short-term bearish channel, and the position of the 20 day and 50 day moving averages. If the currency pair can break through this resistance level, a faster rebound may follow to the 156.80 line, while a higher focus may shift towards the 158.40 resistance level.

However, the bearish crossover between the 20 day and 50 day moving averages raises doubts about whether the currency pair will soon return to an upward trend, especially if it fails to close above 153.35.

In this case, the price may reverse, retesting the 200 day moving average around 151.17 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 151.50. Further decline on this basis may lay the foundation for a further pullback to the 149.00-149.50 region, where 50% of Fibonacci numbers are lurking.

In short, the USD/JPY is currently recovering, but has not yet emerged from its predicament. A decisive breakthrough of 154.30 may eliminate downside risks, but traders may remain vigilant until then.