On Thursday (February 13th) during the European trading session, the euro/dollar continued to rise, reaching nearly 1.0430. This increase is mainly due to the significant improvement in market risk sentiment, especially after the positive development of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market's risk appetite has significantly increased. Both sides have agreed to initiate peace negotiations, which has sparked optimism in the market and driven a rebound in the exchange rate.

Fundamental analysis

US President Trump has engaged in dialogue with Russian President Putin, who has agreed to begin peace talks with Ukraine. This progress has been interpreted by the market as potentially ending the three-year conflict and providing hope for resolving the European energy crisis and global supply chain issues.

The shift in market sentiment has significantly increased the attractiveness of risk assets represented by the euro. In this context, the strengthening of the euro has become a market trend. However, despite this, there are still certain concerns in the market. Due to the weak economy in the eurozone and expectations of the European Central Bank (ECB) continuing to implement loose monetary policy, the market generally expects the rebound of the euro to be difficult to sustain, especially in the face of long-term inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth in the eurozone.

Nevertheless, the euro/dollar has continued its rebound momentum and has risen for three consecutive trading days. Currently, the euro/dollar has surpassed the 1.0400 mark.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the short-term rise of EUR/USD still faces certain challenges, mainly due to the inconsistent performance of multiple technical indicators. Firstly, the price of EUR/USD has surpassed 1.0400 and continues to fluctuate and consolidate around the 50 day moving average. The current market sentiment is cautious, although the euro has rebounded slightly, the price is close to technical resistance and may face downward pressure.

The relative strength index (RSI) for the 14th is currently fluctuating within the range of 40.00-60.00, indicating that the market is in a state of consolidation and volatility. The RSI has not yet broken through 60, indicating that the bullish momentum is still insufficient and market sentiment is still in a neutral zone. If RSI continues to remain within this range, the upward momentum of EUR/USD may be limited, and prices may experience volatile consolidation or correction.

Currently, the price of EUR/USD is approaching the resistance level of 1.0460. If the price breaks through this level, it may further drive upward, testing the psychological resistance level of 1.0500. However, if a breakthrough cannot be achieved, the euro/dollar may face technical selling pressure, and the price may fall back to the support range around 1.0300.

In addition, if the price falls below the support range of 1.0300, it may further explore the low point of 1.0177, and even test the integer level of 1.0100. The support level around 1.0100 is crucial for EUR/USD, and if the price falls below this level, it may trigger greater downward pressure.

From a longer-term perspective, if the euro/dollar cannot break through the resistance level of 1.0500, the upward momentum may gradually weaken and enter a period of consolidation and oscillation. If the price falls below the support level of 1.0100, the euro/dollar may further decline, testing the key support level of 1.0000.

Summary:

The recent rebound of EUR/USD has received support from market sentiment, but still faces technical resistance. 1.0460 has become a key technical resistance level in the short term. If the price breaks through this region, the euro/dollar may further rise to 1.0500. If it fails to break through, it may face downward pressure and test the support level below.