Trump pushes tariff plan, market sentiment fluctuates

The global crude oil market is digesting the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy proposed by US President Trump. The Trump administration plans to impose new tariffs on some trading partners, including tariffs on crude oil exports from Canada and Mexico. This measure may exacerbate trade concerns and create uncertainty in the energy market.

Short term stabilization of oil prices, market pays attention to changes in the supply side

Despite market fluctuations caused by trade policies, WTI crude oil remains above $71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is close to $75. The US oil industry is optimistic about seeking exemptions, believing that the Trump administration may implement tariffs before they are officially implemented

Make adjustments. Meanwhile, the situation of restricted crude oil supply from Russia continues due to the impact of US sanctions, driving oil prices to record a weekly increase for the first time since mid January.

Geopolitical negotiations affect supply side expectations

Recently, Trump and Russian President Putin agreed to negotiate on the conflict in Ukraine. This news has sparked market speculation that if negotiations make progress, the situation of limited Russian crude oil supply may ease, thereby exerting some downward pressure on oil prices. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again lowered its global oil surplus forecast, mainly due to the expected increase in demand growth in Asian countries, further affecting market sentiment.

The US oil industry is closely monitoring the final implementation of tariff policies, while supply risks in the global market still exist. "- spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute

The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s latest market assessment states in its latest oil market report that if Russia can find alternative ways to bypass US sanctions, its oil exports may continue.

In addition, data shows that the country's crude oil production slightly increased last month. Meanwhile, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the increase in US crude oil inventories last week exceeded market expectations, putting pressure on market sentiment.

FXCUE Editor's Opinion:

The current crude oil market is influenced by multiple factors, with trade policies, geopolitics, and market supply and demand patterns intertwined. In the short term, there is still significant uncertainty regarding Trump's tariff plan, and market sentiment may continue to fluctuate. In the long run, the core driving force of the global oil market remains the changes in the supply side and the growth of demand in Asian countries. If the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict eases and Russian oil supply recovers, oil prices may fall under pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor policy trends and changes in market supply and demand to cope with possible drastic fluctuations in oil prices.