On Friday (February 14th), before the European market opened, the US dollar/Swiss franc exchange rate rebounded to around 0.9040, driven by increased demand for the US dollar, and the exchange rate maintained a certain upward trend. Recently, the strong performance of US economic data, especially the unexpected increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI), has intensified market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue maintaining high interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently emphasized that due to the continued strong labor market and economic growth, the Fed has no plans to cut interest rates in a hurry.

In addition, Scott Anderson of BMO pointed out that the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly cautious about future interest rate cuts, and "maintaining high interest rates for a long time" is becoming a consensus in the market. In this context, the US dollar may continue to receive support, especially under the influence of the upcoming January US retail sales data. If retail sales data also shows strong performance, it may further push up the US dollar, thereby putting pressure on the Swiss franc (CHF).

On the Swiss side, data released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Thursday showed that the year-on-year growth rate of the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January fell to 0.4%, which is in line with market expectations and also the lowest level since April 2021. The monthly CPI slightly decreased by 0.1%, unchanged from the previous period, indicating that inflation pressure in Switzerland has eased.

However, geopolitical uncertainty still has an impact on the market, and safe haven sentiment may drive up demand for the Swiss franc as a traditional safe haven currency. The Israeli government recently stated that it will comply with the hostage release schedule in the ceasefire agreement reached with Hamas, but at the same time warned that if the expected three hostages are not released by Saturday, the conflict may resume, and the uncertainty of this situation has brought a safe haven demand for the Swiss franc.

Technical analyst interpretation:

Support and Resistance: Based on the current chart, the USD/CHF exchange rate remains above the recent resistance level of 0.8964 and has tested the upper resistance around 0.9199. Although the price has slightly rebounded at present, the support range around 0.9020 is still relatively strong. If the price can maintain above this support level, it is expected to challenge the resistance level of 0.9199 again.

RSI indicator: The RSI is currently around 45, close to oversold, which may indicate that there is some technical rebound momentum in the price in the short term. However, RSI has not entered the oversold zone and is still in a relatively declining area. Therefore, although there may be a short-term pullback, the overall trend still needs further confirmation.

Comprehensive technical analysis: Overall, the US dollar/Swiss franc is currently rebounding from intraday lows. If the price can stabilize around 0.9040 and continue to recover from the previous resistance of 0.9150, it may further challenge higher prices in the future. During the pullback process, if the support level continues to receive effective support, the short-term pullback will also be seen by bulls as an entry signal.

Conclusion:

From a fundamental perspective, the market demand for the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate hikes provide support for the USD/CHF, while the CHF is affected by geopolitical risks. Technically speaking, if the price of USD/CHF remains above the support level in the short term, it is expected to continue to rise; The market is focusing on the two key technological levels of 0.9040 and 0.9199.