On Friday (February 14th) during the European trading session, the AUD/USD saw its second consecutive day of gains, mainly due to the news of US President Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of mutual tariffs. At the same time, the US dollar weakened against the backdrop of the overall downward trend in the yield of US treasury bond bonds, which promoted the strengthening of the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate. Although concerns about global economic uncertainty still exist in the market, this news has boosted market sentiment and prompted a rebound in the Australian dollar.

However, the rise of the Australian dollar is facing certain pressure, especially from domestic economic data in Australia. According to the latest consumer price expectations data, Australia's consumer inflation expectations for February rose from 4.0% in January to 4.6%, reaching the highest level since April 2024. This data has raised concerns in the market about the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to current market expectations, the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates to 4.10% at next week's monetary policy meeting has reached 95%. The market generally believes that Australia's core inflation is gradually slowing down, which provides support for the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement interest rate cuts.

At the same time, although strong inflation data in the United States has strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, the weakness of the US dollar still supports the rise of the Australian dollar/US dollar. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates in response to economic recovery and high inflation, which also means that the relative strength of the US dollar may continue in the short term.

Overall, despite facing both internal and external pressures, the Australian dollar is still likely to maintain a certain upward momentum in the short term due to the weakness of the US dollar and market doubts about the pace of the US economic recovery.

Technical analyst interpretation:

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD broke through the 9-day and 14 day moving averages in Friday's trading, indicating a strengthening of short-term price momentum. The current exchange rate remains around 0.6340, indicating strong upward momentum. On the 14th, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exceeded 60, further strengthening the market's bullish sentiment towards the Australian dollar/US dollar.

Support and Resistance Analysis:

During the upward trend, the Australian dollar/US dollar may challenge the eight week high of 0.6377. If the exchange rate breaks through this resistance level, the psychological level of 0.6400 will become the next potential target level. The breakthrough in this region may further consolidate the short-term upward trend of the Australian dollar/US dollar.

However, if the Australian dollar/US dollar experiences a pullback, the first support level will be at the 0.6290 level. If this level is effectively broken through, the exchange rate may further decline to the support area of 0.6279. If the exchange rate falls below this critical support range, it may lead to a reversal of short-term price momentum, further pushing it down to the psychological support level of 0.6200.

Overall, although the current market sentiment is bullish, there is still some uncertainty in the technical aspect. The market is closely monitoring whether the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate can successfully break through resistance levels and maintain above key support levels. Breaking through the current technical level may lead to greater volatility.

Conclusion:

The current strong rebound of the Australian dollar provides opportunities for short-term trading, but it still faces potential market risks and technical pressures, as well as the dual impact of the upcoming US retail sales data and the policy decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia, making the trend of the Australian dollar/US dollar still full of variables.