At the beginning of the European market on Monday (February 17th), the price of the NZD/USD remained stable near the high point of the previous trading day. It should be noted that due to the President's Day holiday in the United States, liquidity during the North American trading session may be relatively thin, and major financial markets will be closed during the holiday.

The rise of the New Zealand dollar/US dollar in this round is due to the improvement of market sentiment. Firstly, US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of mutual tariffs has injected confidence into the market. Meanwhile, the lower than expected retail sales data in the United States has intensified market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Although the inflation problem in the United States remains severe, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve may adjust its monetary policy later this year due to slowing economic growth and weak retail consumption.

Data shows that retail sales in the United States decreased by 0.9% in January, compared to a revised retail sales growth of 0.7% in December of last year (previously reported as 0.4%). The decline in retail sales in January was significantly higher than the market's expected 0.1% decline, which further sparked discussions in the market about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

At the same time, the US dollar index has been under continuous pressure, currently fluctuating around 106.80. The decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds (the yield of two-year treasury bond bonds is 4.26% and that of 10-year treasury bonds is 4.47%) has also brought greater pressure on the US dollar. The market is paying attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to maintain its tight monetary policy.

On the New Zealand side, it is expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold a meeting on Wednesday and may lower interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75%. According to market forecasts, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will indicate a more moderate pace of interest rate cuts in the future, and may further lower interest rates to 3.0% or 3.25% within the year. The Business Services Performance Index (PSI) in New Zealand also rebounded to 50.4 in January, an improvement from 48.1 in December, indicating a recovery in the service industry.

Technical analyst interpretation:

On a technical level, the trend of the New Zealand dollar/US dollar shows a clear upward trend, with multiple moving averages interwoven on the daily chart. The current price is stable around 0.5730, showing an overall upward trend of oscillation. From the moving average (MA) of the daily chart, it can be seen that the short-term moving average (such as the 9-day and 20 day moving averages) has broken through the longer period moving average (such as the 50 day moving average), forming a typical "golden cross" pattern, indicating a bullish trend in the short term.

The current price is above the 50 day moving average, indicating a relatively optimistic market sentiment and strong support levels. However, the 100 day and 200 day moving averages continue to move downwards, indicating that there is still some downward pressure in the medium to long term.

On the MACD indicator, the DIFF line continues to be above the DEA line, indicating strong upward momentum. In addition, the MACD histogram is above the zero axis and the column gradually increases, further confirming the short-term upward momentum.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 60, in the "overheated range" of 50-70. Although it is still in a relatively strong state, it is close to overbought levels. This means that if the price continues to rise, there may be a certain risk of a pullback and a short-term adjustment.

It is worth noting that the current market has established a strong support zone around 0.5692 (the highest point). If the price rebounds to this level and can remain above that area, it is possible to break through the resistance level of 0.5740 again and further challenge higher price levels. On the contrary, if the price falls below the support level of 0.5692, it may trigger a larger adjustment and even retest the bottom area of 0.5584.

Summary:

Overall, the NZD/USD is showing a bullish trend in the current fundamental and technical environment. Market sentiment is driven by both the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations and New Zealand's economic data. However, there is already a certain degree of pullback risk on a technical level, and the market remains cautious, paying attention to the performance of key support levels. It is expected that the New Zealand dollar/US dollar may continue to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but there may also be a certain degree of correction.