OPEC+may delay production increase again, Russian officials deny discussing related plans

The OPEC+representative revealed that the organization is considering delaying the planned increase of 120000 barrels per day, which was originally scheduled to begin in April. If this plan is postponed, it will be the fourth time since 2022 that the alliance has postponed its production increase arrangements.

Potential reasons for delaying production increase:

1. Weak market demand: The crude oil market has been under pressure recently, and the new round of US tariff policies may suppress global economic growth, thereby affecting oil demand.

2. Oil price support needs: Delaying production increases can help maintain high oil prices and avoid further declines caused by oversupply.

3. OPEC+internal coordination: Some member countries may wish to maintain current production levels to achieve fiscal balance.

However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that OPEC and its allies have not yet discussed this matter. The issue of delaying production increases has not been formally discussed within OPEC—— Novak

Ukrainian drones attack Russian oil infrastructure, affecting crude oil supply

At the same time, Ukrainian drones attacked oil delivery stations in Russia, causing a decrease in exports from the Kazakhstan oil pipeline, one of the main supply routes from Russia to Europe.

This pipeline is responsible for transporting a large amount of crude oil to the global market, and any interruption could exacerbate supply shortages.

As one of the world's major crude oil exporting countries, the damage to Russia's energy infrastructure may further affect international market expectations for future supply.

In addition, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani stated that oil exports from the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq may resume within a week. This key pipeline leading to Ceyhan Port in Türkiye has been forced to close since March 2023. If it is successfully restored, it will have an important impact on the market supply pattern.

Trump's tariff policies have dragged down market demand expectations and confidence, interrupting the bullish trend in oil prices

The global oil market experienced severe fluctuations in early 2024, with oil prices rising at one point, but then giving up the gains due to concerns about economic growth.

Trump's tariff policies affect market sentiment

US President Trump recently announced new tariff policies that may put pressure on global economic growth.

After the intensification of trade concerns, the market has doubts about the prospects of future energy demand.

The uncertainty of tariff policies will affect global trade flows and may drag down energy demand. "- Market analyst

Overall, OPEC+'s production increase plan, Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities, and Trump's tariff policies have become key factors affecting oil prices in the short term.

From a technical perspective, oil prices are currently in a rebound after oversold, but the price has already fallen below the support of the moving average. If the pullback cannot maintain the $72 integer mark, there is a possibility of a second retracement. Pay attention to whether technical indicators will drive prices down again.

Key factors to pay attention to in the future:

1. Has OPEC+officially announced a delay in increasing production

2. The extent of damage to Russian oil facilities and progress in repair

3. Will the follow-up impact of Trump's tariff policy lead to further contraction of global trade

4. Recovery of Kurdish oil exports in Iraq

Overall, short-term oil prices will still be supported by supply risks, but the uncertainty of global economic growth may limit the room for oil price increases.