On Tuesday (February 18th) during the European trading session, the price of light crude oil futures rose, rebounding strongly from the early decline. The price initially hit its lowest level since December 31st, but quickly rebounded. The market has gained support at the 200 day moving average of $70.64 and is currently breaking through the 50 day moving average of $71.57, attempting to further accumulate upward momentum.

Despite significant fluctuations in early trading, crude oil remains within the key retracement range of $72.08 to $70.35. If it can continue to break through $72.08, it may push the price towards $73.65; If it falls below $70.35, it will indicate a new round of weakness and may accelerate its decline to $67.06.

Kazakhstan supply interruption provides temporary price support

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil prices also rose, continuing the previous trading day's gains after a Russian oil pipeline pumping station was attacked by drones. This incident disrupted oil transportation from Kazakhstan and temporarily tightened supply.

IG market strategist YeapJunRong said that oil prices are largely driven by supply expectations. The recent weakness in crude oil prices has been partially offset by the interruption of the Kazakhstan oil pipeline, prompting traders to lift their bearish bets.

A senior Russian official confirmed that a Ukrainian drone attacked a pipeline that transports approximately 1% of the world's crude oil supply. Although the attack has raised concerns about short-term supply disruptions, there are reports that the Black Sea CPC mixed crude oil loading plan for February remains unchanged.

OPEC+supply plan and demand uncertainty drag down long-term prices

Although supply disruptions provide short-term support, long-term price increases seem limited. Analysts predict that OPEC+and Russia will increase oil supply later this year, which may limit upward momentum. The uncertain economic recovery in some parts of the world has intensified concerns about demand growth.

BMI analysts predict that due to oversupply, tariffs, and trade tensions, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 will be $76 per barrel, a 5% decrease from 2024. In addition, according to official Russian media reports, OPEC+is not considering delaying the monthly production increase plan originally scheduled to begin in April. Previously, due to weak demand and increased non OPEC supply, OPEC had postponed its production increase plan until April.

Geopolitical uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility

Traders are still monitoring potential developments in the Russia Ukraine peace talks as US and Russian officials hold meetings in Saudi Arabia. Any progress could affect Russia's oil supply and market sentiment.

Neil, Sparta Commodity Analyst? Crosby pointed out that the market is still dragged down by bearish factors, and the conflict in Ukraine is a major uncertainty factor. If Russian oil flows back into the formal market, it may further suppress prices, but there are still multiple possibilities.

Market outlook: Cautious optimism, resistance still exists ahead

Although crude oil has rebounded from key technical support levels, further gains will depend on maintaining sustained momentum above $72.08. Short term supply disruptions provide temporary support, but long-term bearish factors - increased OPEC+supply, uncertain demand, and geopolitical risks - may limit gains.

Traders should pay attention to whether a bullish signal breaking through $73.65 has been confirmed, or signs of weakness falling below $70.35, which could trigger a sharper decline to $67.06.