On Wednesday (February 19th), in the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $2933.76 per ounce. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, reaching a high of $2936.82 per ounce during trading, once again approaching the historical high reached last week and closing at $2935.13 per ounce. The uncertainty surrounding US President Trump's tariff plan has raised concerns about economic growth, prompting safe haven funds to flow into gold. The market is also paying attention to the talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, as well as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting to be released this trading day.

Trump stated on Tuesday that car tariffs will be around 25%, and he will release more information on this on April 2nd. Trump also stated that a 25% tariff may be imposed on the pharmaceutical and semiconductor chip sectors in April, with at least some tariffs expected to increase within the year.

At the same time, US President Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on the European Union due to the trade surplus between the EU and the US, which many economists say could lead to a global economic slowdown.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at Kitco Metals, said, "Due to the disruptive nature of the Trump administration, we are seeing an increase in safe haven demand and a bullish technical chart trend

Since taking office last month, Trump has quickly passed a series of tariff measures, and plans to impose comprehensive and equivalent tariffs on any country that taxes American products have also been launched.

Analysts from Commerzbank stated in a report that "central bank buying should also continue to provide support“

In addition, the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust holdings increased by 6.88 tons on Tuesday compared to the previous trading day, marking the largest daily increase since January 17. The current holdings are 869.94 tons, a new high since January 21.

The talks held by US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday aimed at ending the war in Ukraine without Ukraine's participation have attracted widespread attention from the international community.

Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on Tuesday that no peace agreement can be reached behind his back. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, originally scheduled for Wednesday, to March 10th to avoid bringing "legitimacy" to the US Russia talks.

German Chancellor Scholz reiterated that "no decision regarding Ukraine can be made behind Ukraine's back".

Trump treated Ukraine's concerns about being excluded from the talks with indifference and stated that he would not object if Europeans wanted to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.

Monex USA trading director Juan Perez said, "The market seems to be concerned about the cold relationship between the United States and the European Union. The US and Russia held a meeting in Saudi Arabia, excluding EU officials. This has raised doubts about the initial enthusiasm of Ukraine and Russia to find a middle ground and bring better economic conditions to all parties involved

However, Russia made stronger demands on the peace agreement on Tuesday, insisting that NATO withdraw its commitment made at the 2008 Bucharest summit that Ukraine would join the organization at an unspecified date in the future.

Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Israeli officials have stated that Israel and Hamas will begin indirect negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. Hamas has stated that it will hand over more hostages, including the bodies of two children, this week. The second phase of negotiations is expected to be very difficult, as it involves issues such as the management of post-war Gaza, and there are significant differences between the two sides on these issues.

At present, the focus of the market has shifted to the January meeting minutes to be released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and investors will search for clues about the trajectory of interest rates.

Wyckoff added, "If the economy starts to weaken due to trade tariffs and other reasons, we may see interest rates cut

This week's speeches by Federal Reserve policy makers largely followed the same script. Philadelphia Fed President Huck, Board members Bauman, and Waller stated that they believe the strong economy and rising inflation demonstrate the need to maintain policy rate stability at present.

San Francisco Fed President Daley reiterated on Tuesday that it is appropriate to pause interest rate cuts until more significant progress is made in lowering inflation to the Fed's 2% target.

She said at the community banking conference held by the American Bankers Association in Phoenix, Arizona, "Policy needs to remain restrictive until... I see that we are indeed making progress on inflation

She said that the economy and labor market remain strong, and in my judgment, we hope to act cautiously before making the next adjustment to ensure that there is enough downward pressure on inflation.

Daley said that the policies of the Trump administration may promote or slow down economic growth, labor supply, and inflation, depending on the details and their 'scope, magnitude, and timing'.

The meeting minutes will be carefully studied to find clues about the Federal Reserve's path forward, especially considering recent data showing strong price growth, declining consumer sentiment, and lower than expected retail sales.

The Federal Reserve has been quite transparent here, "said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services." There is evidence that the economy is slightly slowing down, and I'm sure they are paying attention to that. But I don't think they have significant pressure to cut interest rates soon, at least not yet

On this trading day, the initial value of the annualized total number of construction permits in the United States for January and the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States for January will also be released. Investors need to pay attention. Additionally, pay attention to the New Zealand interest rate decision, as the market expects the central bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, leaning towards supporting gold prices.