On Wednesday, February 19th, before the European market opened, the Japanese yen maintained a steady upward trend, while the US dollar (USD) experienced a new round of selling, causing the USD/JPY price to fall to around 151.70. This trend is mainly influenced by Japan's economic policies. As Japan's inflation continues to rise, the market is widely expecting the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates. This expectation continues to provide support for the yen and has become the main driving factor for its rebound.

In contrast, the US dollar is facing expected pressure from the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. This has led to a weakness of the US dollar compared to other currencies, thus increasing the downside risk of the US dollar/Japanese yen. The current market generally believes that the US dollar/Japanese yen may continue to weaken, especially as the market sentiment remains cautious while waiting for the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the trend of USD/JPY has shown significant downward pressure in the short term. The current price of USD/JPY is around 151.70, breaking through the recent support level, and the future trend is likely to depend on the breakthrough of this price range.

Resistance level analysis: If the US dollar/Japanese yen price rebounds, it may face suppression from multiple important resistance levels. Firstly, the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) formed a preliminary resistance level around 152.65. If the price breaks through this area, it may further test the psychological resistance level of the 153.00 area. Stronger resistance will appear in the range of 153.30-153.35, which corresponds exactly to the 100 day SMA. If the USD/JPY price can effectively break through the 153.35 area, it may open up space for further upward movement and push the price towards the 154.00 level.

If it continues to rise after breaking through 154.00, the target may point to the price range of 154.45-154.50, which was the volatile high point of last week. At the same time, the 154.75-154.80 area may also exist as a strong technical selling pressure. If these areas are breached, the price is expected to further challenge the psychological barrier of 155.00.

Support level analysis: However, if the USD/JPY fails to break through the resistance level mentioned above and begins to decline, the technical outlook will shift towards a more pessimistic trend. If the price falls below the 151.60 area, it may intensify selling and further test the support strength of the 151.25 area. If this support level is also broken, the price may accelerate its downward trend, with a target towards the psychological support level of 151.00.

Once the price falls below the 151.00 mark, selling may further ferment, pushing the price closer to the 150.60 area. If this support level is broken, it may further weaken, possibly testing at the psychological level of 150.00, and even moving further towards the 149.60-149.55 region.

In addition, if the price continues to weaken and breaks through the 149.00 level, it may return to the low point of December, which is around the 148.65 area and becomes a key support level for further decline.

Summary:

From the current technical perspective, the US dollar/Japanese yen is facing important technical support and resistance ranges. The 151.60 area will be a key support level, and if the price falls below this area, it may accelerate the downward trend, with the target pointing towards the support range of 150.00 and lower. However, if the USD/JPY can maintain above 151.60 and break through important resistance levels such as 152.65 and 153.00, it is expected to rebound and test higher price targets.