On Thursday (February 20th), before the European market opened, the USD/CHF experienced some selling pressure, temporarily interrupting its recent upward trend. On the previous trading day, the USD/CHF reached a high of 0.9055, close to the highest point of the weekly line. However, the current price has fallen to the lower end of the intraday range, around 0.9025, and there is a risk of further decline in the short term.

US President Trump announced on Wednesday that a series of tariffs on products will be announced next month or earlier, exacerbating market uncertainty about the global trade situation and leading to weak performance of risk assets, which in turn benefits the traditional safe haven currency, the Swiss franc (CHF). In addition, there has been a certain degree of selling of the US dollar (USD), which has put pressure on the trend of the USD/CHF.

The risk aversion in the global market has led to a further decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds. Although the US dollar was supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve would maintain the suspension of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index (DXY) failed to continue to rebound, staying near the two month low reached earlier this week.

Therefore, analysts believe that in the current situation, to confirm whether the rebound of the US dollar/Swiss franc has completely ended, strong selling follow-up is needed. Next, the market will focus on the release of US economic data on Thursday evening, including weekly initial jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, the speeches of Federal Reserve officials may have a further impact on the dynamics of US dollar prices, thereby triggering fluctuations in the US dollar/Swiss franc.

Technical analyst interpretation:

On a technical level, the short-term trend of USD/CHF shows some signs of reversal. Since hitting the low point of 0.8971, the price has rebounded to 0.9055, achieving a certain increase. But the current price has fallen to around 0.9025, bringing potential downward pressure to the market.

From the daily chart, the US dollar/Swiss franc is currently below multiple important moving averages, showing a gradual downward trend, suggesting that the price may face greater downward pressure. Especially for the price rebound at the 0.9025 level, the strength is weak, indicating that the support at this level has weakened.

The MACD indicator shows that the Fast Line (DIF) is in the negative range, and the MACD bar chart appears green, indicating that bearish forces are gradually strengthening. If it further falls below the support level of 0.9020 in the future, it may intensify the downward trend and further point to the level of 0.8965, or even lower support intervals.

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently remains around 45, indicating a weakened buying momentum in the market and a possible correction in the short term; Especially if the price further falls below 0.9020, it may trigger more selling.

In the short term, if the US dollar/Swiss franc fails to stabilize its current support and experiences strong selling during some trading sessions, it may lead to a further decline in prices and test lower support areas, such as the 0.8965 and 0.8940 ranges. If the price rebounds to the 0.9055 line, it may encounter selling pressure again and continue to show a volatile trend.

Overall, the technical performance of the USD/CHF is currently showing downside risks and may face further correction and decline in the short term. The market is paying attention to the support levels of 0.9020 and 0.8965, waiting for further confirmation of the downward trend.