Thursday (February 20th): The euro/dollar (EUR/USD) showed a volatile consolidation trend today. In the absence of a strong direction in the US dollar index and Eurozone economic data, the euro/dollar still maintains a pattern of range oscillation. Today, the market is focusing on the release of data on US unemployment claims, which may provide guidance for the short-term trend of the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis: Market sentiment cautious

From a fundamental perspective, there are no major European economic data releases today, and the market's focus is on the upcoming US initial jobless claims data. It is expected that this data will have a certain impact on the US dollar, while for the euro, despite recent signs of economic recovery in the eurozone, the overall outlook remains relatively uncertain. Due to the unresolved economic structural issues in the eurozone and the challenging growth prospects of core countries such as Germany and France, the upward potential of the euro is still limited.

Compared to the euro, the performance of the US dollar is relatively strong. With the improvement of US economic data, especially the recovery of the labor market, the attractiveness of the US dollar in the global foreign exchange market remains strong. At the same time, the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve also provides support for the US dollar, which enables it to resist the global market's risk aversion to some extent.

Technical analysis: Price fluctuations are rising, with key resistance levels at the forefront

On a technical level, the recent trend of EUR/USD has shown a relatively complex pattern. In previous analysis, it was mentioned that the euro/dollar may fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 1.0338 to 1.0405, but the price will break through this range and show a significant increase, especially after last Friday when the market showed a strong bullish momentum.

Currently, the important technical resistance level facing the euro/dollar is around 1.0442, which is the key bottleneck for the recent upward trend. If the euro price breaks through this point and stabilizes in the region, it may push prices further higher. However, if the price fails to break through that level and rebound, the euro/dollar may return to a downward trajectory, with a target of 1.0400 or lower.

From short-term technical signals, there is currently no clear long-term trend in the market, and the trend of EUR/USD is mainly characterized by short-term fluctuations. Recently, the price has broken through multiple downward trend lines, but has not completely exited the oscillation range, so the short-term trend is still difficult to predict.

Market outlook: Short term consolidation of fluctuations

In summary, the current trend of EUR/USD appears to be relatively balanced in both fundamental and technical aspects. Without strong economic data guidance, the main driving factors in the market remain the short-term trend of the US dollar and the recovery process of the eurozone economy.

From a technical perspective, the recent volatility of the euro/dollar indicates that the market is cautious about the short-term direction, especially with strong selling pressure at the resistance level around 1.0442. If the euro/dollar can break through this level and stabilize, it may usher in a short-term rebound; If the price fails to break through the resistance zone, the market may choose to retrace or even retest the support zone of 1.0400 or lower.

In the coming days, the market will closely monitor the upcoming release of US economic data, especially unemployment claims data, which may become a catalyst for further strengthening of the US dollar and may also have a direct impact on the short-term trend of the euro/dollar.

In summary, the current EUR/USD market presents a cautious equilibrium trend and may continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 1.0379 to 1.0442 in the short term.