On Thursday (February 20th), before the US market opened, the Japanese yen performed strongly in the global foreign exchange market, and its gains against other major currencies continued to expand. The rising demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven currency is mainly driven by increased trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In particular, US President Trump recently announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, exacerbating market concerns about a global economic slowdown and broader economic frictions.

In addition, Trump's remarks during negotiations with Russia regarding the situation in Ukraine have further heightened geopolitical tensions in the market.

The rise of the Japanese yen is also supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates. The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this year, especially against the backdrop of rising prices. The market's expectation that the Bank of Japan may adjust its monetary policy is gradually increasing. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the market regarding whether the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates in March. Therefore, traders are waiting for Japan's inflation data this Friday to provide more guidance on the direction of future interest rate hikes.

Analyst's technical interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate is currently showing a clear downward trend. The current key technical point is the psychological support level of 150.00, and the USD/JPY has recently fallen below this level, further strengthening the bearish control. After the price broke through 150.00, there was significant downward pressure on the US dollar/Japanese yen, and technical indicators showed that the market may enter an oversold zone, indicating that bearish momentum may further increase, forming a downward acceleration trend.

In terms of technical indicators, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has approached the oversold zone, further suggesting that the exchange rate may face a short-term rebound. However, from an overall trend perspective, the US dollar/Japanese yen is still in a downward channel.

In terms of support levels, the current first support level for USD/JPY is around 149.45, while the second support level is around 148.00. If the price falls below these two support levels, the USD/JPY may further decline to lower levels. However, if the price can maintain above these support levels, the probability of a rebound still exists.

From the perspective of resistance level, the current main technical resistance level is 154.70. If the price breaks through this level, it means that the downward trend may have been broken and the market may turn back to an upward trend. Pay attention to the changes at this level. If the price successfully breaks through 154.70, it may trigger a large-scale technical rebound in the short term.

Technical summary:

Overall, the current downward trend of the US dollar/Japanese yen is quite evident, but it is still within a technically controllable range. However, it should be noted that if the USD/JPY falls below the support level of 148.00, it may face greater downside potential. Meanwhile, breaking through the resistance level of 154.70 may alter the overall trend of the market. Although the upward trend of the Japanese yen cannot be ignored, technically speaking, there is still room for a rebound in the current USD/JPY exchange rate.