On Friday (February 21st), before the European market opened, with a moderate rebound of the US dollar, the US dollar/Swiss franc found support around 0.8985. While waiting for the upcoming US S&P global PMI preliminary report, the market is also paying attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. Federal Reserve officials stated at the January meeting that they would only consider further interest rate cuts if inflation further falls. Especially under US President Trump's tariff policy, the trend of the US dollar is influenced by many factors.

Fundamental analysis

The recent price fluctuations of USD/CHF are mainly influenced by US economic data and expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The US economy is facing multiple challenges, but due to the Federal Reserve's continued statement of vigilance against inflation, the market generally believes that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 will be relatively slow. Especially in recent speeches, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned that considering the significant uncertainty in the economic outlook, the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates. The signs of economic weakness in the United States and the determination of the Federal Reserve to control inflation have maintained the advantage of the US dollar's interest rate differential, thereby supporting the trend of the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

At the same time, Trump announced that he will announce new tariff policies in the next month, involving multiple fields such as timber, automobiles, and semiconductors, which has increased market uncertainty and driven demand for safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc. Despite the safe haven nature of the Swiss franc, the performance of the US dollar still has a certain advantage due to expectations of the US economic outlook and Federal Reserve policies, especially in the current situation where the Swiss franc's rebound is relatively weak.

Technical analyst interpretation:

On a technical level, the US dollar/Swiss franc rebounded around 0.8985 and showed some support signals. From the recent price trend, the US dollar/Swiss franc has experienced significant fluctuations, but the price has not effectively broken through the support level of 0.8964, which provides a foundation for further rebound.

At present, the main support for USD/CHF is around 0.8964, and prices are gradually stabilizing at this level. If the price breaks through this support level, it may test lower support areas, and 0.8923 may become a short-term technical support. On the other hand, the range of 0.8990-0.8999 is currently the main pressure level. If the price breaks through this range, it is expected to further approach the pressure levels around 0.9030 and 0.9045.

The RSI indicator (14 cycles) is currently around 43.00, gradually showing an upward trend, and the exchange rate may still maintain some upward momentum in the short term. If RSI continues to fall below 40, it may increase the risk of price decline.

The overall trend of USD/CHF on the current technical level is expected to continue to lean towards an upward trend. If the price breaks through the resistance levels of 0.8999 and 0.9030, it may further approach 0.9199. On the other hand, if the price falls below the support level of 0.8964, it may trigger a more significant pullback, and the target area may drop to 0.8923.

conclusion

Overall, the US dollar/Swiss franc has shown some rebound momentum at the current stage. Although the market faces many uncertainties, from a technical perspective, there is a possibility of further price increases. Pay attention to the breakthroughs in the two key technical levels of 0.8964 and 0.8999 to determine the next trend of the market. Meanwhile, the speeches of Federal Reserve officials and the release of US economic data will also have a significant impact on market sentiment and trends in the short term.