On Monday, February 24th, spot silver (XAG/USD) traded at $32.547 per ounce, up 0.29% for the day. The price of silver has been fluctuating and consolidating recently, showing a relatively strong trend. The market's focus is not only on the technical aspect, but also on the weakness of US economic data, the weakening of the US dollar, and changes in the global geopolitical situation. The current market environment reflects an increase in risk aversion, driving demand for silver as a precious metal.

Market background and market overview

Recently, silver prices have been driven by multiple factors. Firstly, the weakening of the US dollar is one of the core factors that the market is concerned about. The weak US economic data released last week, especially the poor performance of initial jobless claims and the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), put pressure on the US dollar. The US composite PMI for February fell to 50.4, lower than expected and lower than January's 52.7. Although the manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, the significant decline in the service PMI reflects the slowing pace of the US economic recovery.

The release of these data directly affected the strong performance of the US dollar, providing upward support for precious metals priced in US dollars, such as silver. At the same time, the market remains highly concerned about the uncertainty of domestic and foreign policies in the United States, especially President Trump's restrictions on Chinese investment and the trend of US Russia relations, which have intensified the market's risk aversion.

Another support for the silver market comes from the geopolitical tensions, especially the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the progress of the US Russian diplomacy. US President Trump has initiated diplomatic contacts with Russia and has to some extent driven market attention to political uncertainty. In addition, the executive memorandum signed by Trump restricts China's investment in strategic industries in the United States, which once again raises market concerns about global economic instability.

Technical Analysis: Technical Support and Pressure for Silver Trend

The silver price is currently fluctuating around $32.50, showing strong support characteristics. Technically speaking, the recent trend of silver is mainly affected by the weakening of the US dollar, and there is no obvious technical reversal signal. Although silver prices have not broken through important technical pressure levels in the short term, the overall upward trend still exists.

Key technical level:

-Instant support: $32.00

-Next support level: $31.50

-Instant resistance: $32.75

-Next resistance level: $33.50

From the 1-hour chart, the overall trend of silver prices is fluctuating within the range of $32.00-33.00, and is still supported by the $32.50 mark. If silver breaks through the immediate resistance level of $32.75, it may test higher levels, especially the resistance level of $33.50. If the price of silver fails to break through $32.75, it will continue to consolidate within the current range.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows that the overbought area of silver has not yet reached its limit, leaving room for a short-term price rebound. The MACD indicator shows a slight bullish signal, suggesting that the current upward trend may continue to persist.

Fundamental Analysis: The Dual Pressure of Global Economy and Geopolitics

The weakening of the US dollar and US economic data

The weakness of US economic data directly led to the weakening of the US dollar. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose to 219000, exceeding market expectations, indicating that the job market may be facing some pressure. Meanwhile, the decline in the composite PMI also suggests that the pace of economic recovery in the United States may slow down, providing support for the decline of the US dollar and thus supporting the rise of silver prices denominated in US dollars.

Trump's Policy Speeches and Trade Risks

US President Trump has signed a memorandum restricting China's investment in strategic industries in the US and potentially exacerbating global trade tensions. This measure has intensified market uncertainty, causing investors to lean towards safe haven assets such as gold and silver. In addition, the market concerns sparked by Trump's tariff remarks have further boosted demand for precious metals, especially against the backdrop of a sluggish global economy.

The Russia Ukraine situation and US Russia relations

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its fourth year, and the market remains highly concerned about the development of the situation. The upcoming EU summit may increase support for Ukraine and further increase market uncertainty. In addition, diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Russia may have an impact on silver prices. If the two countries make some progress in economic sanctions or energy policies, it may have an impact on the supply-demand balance of the silver market.

Future trend outlook

From a technical perspective, silver prices are currently showing strong support levels, especially around $32.00. In the short term, silver may continue to fluctuate and consolidate within the range of $32.00-33.00. Considering the weakness of the US dollar, silver prices may continue to seek upward breakthroughs in the short term. If silver can break through the technical resistance of $32.75, there is a high possibility of further upward movement to $33.50.

However, market concerns about the global economic situation, trade policies, and geopolitics will continue to affect the trend of silver prices. Trump's restrictions on Chinese investment and the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other uncertain factors may promote the demand for risk aversion, further supporting the price of silver. Overall, silver may maintain a volatile trend in the current market environment, but any policy changes or major events may affect its short-term price fluctuations.

Therefore, investors should closely monitor the release of economic data and the policy trends of the Trump administration during the operation process, while paying attention to technical support and pressure levels. The silver market is highly volatile and requires flexible response.