On Monday (February 24th), the Australian dollar against the US dollar (AUD/USD) showed a trend of first rising and then falling in today's trading. The current price is 0.6364, up 0.14% from the previous day. However, overall, the market's risk appetite has significantly weakened, and the Australian dollar is facing greater downward pressure after experiencing a short-term rebound.

Recently, the uncertainty of the global economy has intensified. Although there has not been a complete outbreak of a full-scale trade conflict, market concerns about tariff issues still loom over the global economy. This has a direct impact on the Australian economy. As an exporter of commodities, Australia's economy is closely related to the global trade situation, making the Australian dollar even more fragile.

In addition, the performance of inflation data in the United States is uneven, but the PMI data still shows the expansion momentum of the economy, which is expected to continue to push up inflationary pressure. Rising inflation usually leads to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which supports the US dollar and puts downward pressure on the Australian dollar. The slow progress of trade agreement negotiations between Canada and the United States has also increased market tension, which may also have a negative impact on the Australian dollar. Overall, the multiple uncertainties in the global economy have significantly weakened the market's risk appetite, and investors' confidence in the Australian dollar is gradually declining.

Technical analysis

From a technical perspective, the current trend shows a certain degree of downside risk. In the daily chart of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, the 50 day moving average (EMA) of the index is at 0.63156, and the current price is slightly above this level, indicating that the price is still near this support level in the short term. If the price breaks through this support level, it may trigger further downward pressure. On the other hand, the 200 day EMA is at 0.64783, and the current price is below this level, indicating that the overall trend is still weak and it is difficult for the current price to break through this strong resistance range.

Recently, the price has encountered strong resistance around 0.63500, showing some signs of a pullback. If the price continues to fail to break through this level, it may continue to face downward pressure. The increase in trading volume during the downturn indicates a cautious market sentiment and a gradual increase in selling power.

From the perspective of technical support and resistance, the 50 day EMA (0.63156) will be a key support in the future trend. If the price falls below this level, it may trigger a wider decline. The 200 day EMA (0.64783) constitutes the current upward pressure, and only by breaking through this resistance level can a rebound be possible.

Future Trends and Prospects

In the short term, the Australian dollar may continue to fluctuate and consolidate around 0.63500 against the US dollar, and there is a risk of testing the 50 day EMA support level. If the price falls below this support, it may further decline, especially in the context of increased global economic uncertainty, and market sentiment may further deteriorate.

In the long run, global economic uncertainty remains the main constraining factor. If trade tensions continue or intensify, the Australian dollar may continue to face downward pressure, especially considering Australia's high dependence on global trade. In addition, the strength of the US dollar will also exert sustained pressure on the Australian dollar.

Therefore, the current trend may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and in the short term, it may still test the support level of the 50 day EMA. Investors should closely monitor global economic data, especially the prospect of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as well as the latest developments in trade negotiations, which will directly affect the subsequent trend of the Australian dollar.