Forex Trading Analysis: GBP/USD, EUR/USD Outlook

2025-02-25 1640

On Tuesday (February 25th) during the European trading session, the US dollar index remained stable, trading around 106.63, with a decline of about 0.03%. Due to several influential events scheduled today that may affect the trend of the US dollar, trading in the US dollar is currently cautious.

At 17:20 Beijing time, Logan, a member of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, delivered a speech. This speech may help people understand the policy stance of the Federal Reserve.

At 22:00 Beijing time, the S&P/Case Shiller 20 major city housing price index is expected to rise slightly to 4.4% year-on-year, which may affect the sentiment of the real estate market. The Consumer Confidence Report of the Consultative Conference at 23:00 Beijing time is another key event, with the data expected to drop from 104.1 to 102.7, indicating cautious consumer sentiment.

Next is the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which is expected to improve from -4 to -3. Subsequently, speeches by members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, Barr and Barkin, may provide more direction for the market.

Given the upcoming release of preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) and core personal consumption expenditure price index data, traders should be prepared to deal with increased volatility.

Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Forecast

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 106.607, down 0.02%, hovering below the pivot point of 106.790, indicating a cautious sentiment. It also trades below the 50 day moving average (EMA) of 106.904, indicating a short-term bearish trend. If the selling pressure persists, the immediate support level is at 106.111, and the deeper support level is at 105.590.

On the other hand, if the pivot point is broken, market sentiment will turn bullish, with a short-term resistance target of 107.365 and the possibility of moving towards 107.853. The key observation level is 106.790- if maintained below this level, the bearish trend will remain unchanged.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD exchange rate closed at 1.26247 in mid session, slightly up 0.01%, reflecting cautious optimism. It is slightly above the pivot point of 1.26183 and significantly above the 50 day moving average of 1.25943, indicating a short-term upward trend.

If the buyer maintains control, the immediate resistance level is 1.26938, and if the momentum increases, it may advance towards 1.27733.

From a downward perspective, the support level is around 1.25404, followed by stronger support at 1.24609. The key observation level is 1.26183- if it remains above this level, bullish sentiment will remain unchanged, but if it falls below this level, it may trigger a larger decline.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD exchange rate closed at 1.04693, up 0.02%, reflecting cautious optimism in the market. It is slightly above the pivot point of 1.04669 and significantly above the 50 day moving average of 1.04516, indicating a short-term bullish trend.

If the upward trend continues and the immediate resistance level is at 1.05342, breaking through this level may push the price towards 1.05860.

From a downward perspective, the support level is at 1.04088, with more important support at 1.03509. If it remains above 1.04669, bullish sentiment will remain unchanged, but if it falls below that level, it may trigger a significant sell-off.

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