On Tuesday, WTI crude oil futures fell more than 2% to close above $69 per barrel, the lowest closing price since mid December last year. At the same time, Brent crude oil prices fell to around $73 per barrel. Market risk aversion is heating up, with the US consumer confidence index experiencing its largest decline since 2021, exacerbating market concerns over Trump's tariff policies.

Tariffs and their potential trade countermeasures could have an impact on oil intensive industries, thereby increasing market uncertainty about demand, "said Martijn Rats, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Weak market demand combined with supply variables, oil prices have fallen nearly 5% this month

Since February, crude oil prices have cumulatively fallen by nearly 5%. The Trump administration's tough stance on trade policy has dampened investor sentiment, while weak demand growth in Asian countries has further exacerbated market pressure.

In addition, there is still uncertainty on the supply side, including news that the main pipeline oil flow in the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq may resume.

Despite the continued impact of sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports and the possibility of OPEC+extending current production cuts, overall market sentiment remains bearish.

It is reported that OPEC+may postpone the production increase plan originally scheduled for April for the fourth time to maintain market stability.

US API crude oil inventory data mixed, market still needs to pay attention to future demand changes

According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), commercial crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 600000 barrels in the week ending February 21, but inventories at the Cushing crude oil storage center in Oklahoma increased by 1.2 million barrels.

The differentiation of inventory data reflects the significant uncertainty in the domestic supply and demand pattern in the United States.

Technically speaking, the current oil price has fallen below the important support of $70, and technical indicators are accelerating their decline. At the same time, the moving average is turning downwards, forming a dual bearish structure on both fundamental and technical aspects.

If the short-term rebound cannot hold steady at $70, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of continuing to break below the level. Pay attention to whether the support at yesterday's low of $68.50 is effective.

Editor's viewpoint:

Currently, the Trump administration's tariff policies have begun to have an impact on market confidence and global economic growth, which may exacerbate the weakness in oil demand.

Although OPEC+may continue to delay production increases, the decline in global demand remains the dominant factor, and oil prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term.

Investors need to closely monitor the future economic data of the United States, the trade policy direction of the Trump administration, and the latest decisions of OPEC+, which will directly affect the medium-term trend of oil prices.