On Wednesday (February 26th), before the European market opened, after several days of weak performance, the AUD/USD exchange rate continued to be under pressure and entered a downward pattern for the fourth trading day. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January in Australia showed a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, which was the same as the data in December and did not meet market expectations of 2.6%. This indicates that inflationary pressures in Australia are still relatively mild, but far below market expectations for growth.

In addition, US President Trump has stated plans to continue imposing higher tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico after a one month extension next week. Trump reiterated that the United States has been "taken advantage of by other countries" and stated that he will implement so-called "reciprocal tariffs". This statement has added uncertainty to the global trade situation and has to some extent affected market sentiment, putting pressure on the Australian dollar.

The current downward pressure on the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate mainly comes from changes in global risk sentiment, especially the potential impact of uncertainty in US policies.

Technical analyst interpretation:

From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar/US dollar has continued to be under pressure this week and has fallen below its previous upward channel, indicating a weakening of bullish sentiment in the market in the short term. The current trading price of AUD/USD is around 0.6330, which has fallen below the previous upward trend. The breakthrough at this position reflects that the bearish sentiment in the market is gradually taking over, and may test more downward space in the short term.

However, it is worth noting that the relative strength index (RSI) remained above 50 on the 14th, indicating that although the market is under pressure, it has not yet fully entered the extreme oversold zone. The position of the RSI indicator indicates that there is still some rebound momentum in the market, so we should continue to focus on the support area around 0.6320. If the price remains at this level, there may be a short-term rebound.

In terms of short-term resistance, the first resistance level facing the Australian dollar/US dollar is the 9-day moving average (EMA) of 0.6350. If the price successfully breaks through this level, the Australian dollar/US dollar may resume its upward trend in the short term, further approaching the psychological resistance level of 0.6400. After breaking through 0.6400, the next key resistance level is on the upper track of the upward channel, approximately 0.6450.

In terms of support, 0.6320 is a key support line for the current AUD/USD exchange rate. If the price breaks through this level and continues to decline, the market may show a more obvious downward trend, and the next support level will be concentrated at the psychological level of 0.6300. If this position is lost, it may indicate further downward space, and the Australian dollar/US dollar will face significant downside risks in the short term.

In summary, the current technical performance of the Australian dollar/US dollar is quite complex, and the market has not completely lost its rebound momentum under pressure. Pay attention to the support level of 0.6320 and the resistance level of 0.6350. Once these key levels are broken, the exchange rate may experience significant fluctuations in the short term.