On Friday (February 28th) during the European trading session, the US dollar index remained stable before multiple sets of important inflation data were released. The euro and pound remained stable during trading, while the USD/JPY rose slightly. The market focuses on breakthroughs in key technological levels.

EUR/USD: EUR falls, USD returns strong

In Thursday's trading, the euro exchange rate experienced a significant decline. At present, the euro has fallen below the critical level of 1.04. This price has played an important role multiple times before, and now it has fallen back to this point as expected.

If the euro closes below this level, it may further drop to around 1.02. This process will be full of volatility and uncertainty, and in fact, the market's reaction may only be a continuation of the trading noise in recent months. Looking back at President Trump's presidency, market instability often stems from unexpected factors, such as his tweets. Today's trend also showed a similar sudden situation, especially after the opening in New York, the market experienced a sudden panic.

At the same time, the GDP data released by the United States is consistent with expectations, and the market generally speculates that some funds may have previously bet on a weak US economy, so they chose to short the US dollar.

The oscillation range is still ongoing

From a technical perspective, the euro/dollar is still trapped within the volatile range of 1.02 to 1.05, and short-term trading still needs to rely on this range of fluctuations. Even if the market rebounds, we are still not optimistic about the trend of the euro unless we break through the key level of 1.06, as there is too much technical noise in the region and it is difficult to break through in the short term. In short, the current market trend continues the volatile pattern since early December last year and has not shown any significant changes.

USD/JPY exchange rate forecast: attempting to stabilize

If the daily closing price breaks through 151, you can consider going long, with the stop loss level set at 149.50 and the target level looking towards 153.50.

In Thursday's trading, the US dollar rose sharply, approaching the critical level of 150. The focus of market attention is whether it can break through the important technological level of 151. If the breakthrough is successful, the US dollar is expected to further rise.

The upward trend is still brewing

A few days ago, the market was probably building a bottom. Thursday's trend seems to continue this viewpoint. Next, the speed of price breakthrough will become a key factor.

If it breaks through 151, the US dollar may further rise. If it falls below 148.50, it may fall back to 145. Overall, the market is still affected by interest rate differentials. It should be noted that the preliminary US GDP data released on Thursday is consistent with expectations, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. In this situation, the market's sentiment towards holding US dollars remains optimistic, although it is still in the bottom building stage.

GBP/USD exchange rate forecast: GBP approaches 200 day moving average

In Thursday's market analysis, the trend of the pound attracted attention, with the current price approaching the 200 day moving average, which is an important technical indicator commonly used by investors to judge long-term trends. Due to the particularity of the 200 day moving average, the market will closely monitor whether this level can maintain support.

technical analysis

From a technical perspective, the 200 day moving average is crucial for the trend of GBP/USD. If the price remains below this level, it indicates that downward pressure on the pound still exists. If the price further falls below the 200 day moving average, the 50 day moving average may become a new support point, and this moving average is located above the important 1.25 level, which has strong psychological support. If it falls below this level, the pound may face greater downside risks.

On Thursday, the US dollar strengthened in almost all currency pairs, and the pound was not spared either. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, the possibility of a rebound in the pound is low. Only when the pound breaks through 1.2750, can there be a more optimistic signal in the market. Breaking through this level not only means breaking through an important technical barrier, but also means that the pound may once again rise to the 200 day moving average, becoming a powerful signal for a rebound.