Supported by a new round of tariff concerns, gold prices rebounded to the level of $2900. At the same time, the actual rate of return continues to decline, as the nominal rate of return has recently decreased much faster than inflation expectations. The main reason may be Trump's tariff policy, which has raised inflation expectations while lowering economic growth expectations.

The upcoming release of non farm payroll (NFP) and consumer price index (CPI) data this week will be the focus of market attention. If the data performs strongly, especially if inflation data is higher than expected, the market may reduce its bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. At present, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points within the year, an increase from last week's expectation of 44 basis points.

Gold Technology Analysis - Daily Chart

From the daily chart, gold gained support around $2832 last Friday and rebounded to the $2900 level driven by tariff concerns. However, from this time frame perspective, market information is relatively limited, so further amplification of the analysis cycle is needed to obtain more details.

Technical Analysis of Gold Trading -4-hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has broken through the downward trend line previously defined as a pullback to the 2790 level. After the breakthrough, buying forces quickly entered the market, pushing prices towards historical highs.

At the same time, bears may be waiting for opportunities near historical highs, attempting to re pressure and push gold prices back to the $2790 level.

Gold Technology Analysis -1-hour Chart

On the 1-hour chart, the gold price briefly consolidated around $2893, but then broke through a small resistance level, increasing buyer power and pushing the price closer to historical highs.

Bears hope that the price can fall below the uptrend line to regain market confidence and target a support level of $2790. The red line indicates today's daily fluctuation range.

Important data to be released soon

Today, market participants will closely monitor tariff news targeting Canada, Mexico, and China as relevant measures are about to take effect.

Wednesday: US ADP Employment Data&ISM Service PMI

Thursday: Initial jobless claims data in the United States

Friday: Non farm payroll (NFP) report in the United States