Gold resonates with multiple factors, optimistic outlook for bull market
Looking back at the market trend of the past week, technically speaking, gold has shown a strong rebound trend after stabilizing at a low level. The price bottomed out around $2833 and rebounded, closing with a bare footed slightly upper shadow candlestick, recovering most of the decline and rebounding by $80. Although it has not yet reached a new high, the appearance of a bullish candlestick has interrupted the expectation of a pullback, demonstrating the tenacity of the bulls' strength.
On a daily basis, gold has been strengthening for two consecutive trading days, and in the following three trading days, it has been trading sideways at a high level in the range of $2894-2930, with repeated fluctuations and twists. Although it did not successfully break through the resistance level of $2930, multiple dips and rebounds indicate solid support below, and both long and short sides have reached a brief stalemate in this range. This consolidation trend may seem tight, but it actually accumulates strength for the subsequent market outbreak. From a weekly perspective, it is still in the upward phase of a major cycle. The brief adjustment after the nine consecutive suns was just a small episode in the upward trend, and the upward trend did not change. The steady upward rhythm laid the foundation for the subsequent outbreak.
On the news front, many factors have provided strong support for the price of gold. On the Federal Reserve side, although Powell emphasized in his speech that there is no rush to cut interest rates, US inflation continues to approach 2%, and the unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% to 4.1%. The poor performance of employment data indicates that the Federal Reserve is still in a cycle of interest rate cuts. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has only slowed down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the overall direction of interest rate cuts has not changed, which is a long-term positive for gold.
Geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, and risk aversion continues to rise. The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict not only did not ease, but also intensified under the large-scale Russian counterattack. Trump said that he would strengthen sanctions against Ukraine, which intensified the contradiction between the two sides. Meanwhile, the confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria remains tense, and these geopolitical factors have greatly increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset.
The global central bank buying frenzy continues. The People's Bank of China has purchased gold for four consecutive months, demonstrating its long-term determination to purchase gold. In addition, a large amount of gold has flowed into the United States, and investors have increased their holdings of gold in advance due to market concerns that Trump's future increase in gold tariffs will lead to higher import costs. The purchasing behavior of global central banks and the hedging operations of investors have provided strong support for the price of gold.
Looking ahead to next week, the outlook for the gold market remains optimistic. As long as the key support level of $2894 is not breached, the low long strategy should be firmly implemented. The resistance level of $2930 is expected to be broken next week, leading to a pre-test high and even moving towards higher prices. At present, gold is in the budding stage of the second round of spring offensive, and the bull market pattern is still stable. Investors can seize investment opportunities in the gold market while controlling risks.
In summary, the bullish trend in gold is clear, but in specific operations, investors need to closely monitor key points, strictly control risks, flexibly respond to market changes, and seize every reasonable investment opportunity.
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