In early trading in Sanya, international oil prices continued to rise: Brent crude oil futures rose 0.39%, and US WTI crude oil futures rose 0.44%.

The tug of war between market concerns about the economic outlook and the weakening of the US dollar has become a key factor affecting the trend of oil prices.

1. The weakening of the US dollar provides support for oil prices

The US dollar index fell 0.5% on Tuesday, hitting a new low for 2025 and pushing up oil prices, but the rebound in oil prices during this round of US dollar decline is limited.

Despite the weak economic outlook, oil prices continue to rise, indicating strong short-term demand for crude oil, "said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ

2. Tariff policies and concerns about economic recession suppress price increases

US President Trump's protectionist policies have exacerbated market anxiety: repeated tariff policies on oil suppliers to Canada and Mexico (first imposed and then postponed) have disrupted market expectations.

The tariff escalation on Asian countries has triggered countermeasures and exacerbated concerns about global economic growth. Trump said over the weekend that the United States may be in a "transitional period" and did not rule out the possibility of an economic recession, further suppressing market sentiment.

3. Risk assets decline, exacerbating market risk aversion

On Tuesday, the Nasdaq index fell again, continuing the largest sell-off in recent months, causing a decrease in market risk appetite and dragging down sentiment in the crude oil market.

Supply side: US crude oil production hits new high, inventory increases significantly

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that US crude oil production will reach 13.61 million barrels per day by 2025, far exceeding previous expectations.

Last week, API crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 4.247 million barrels, exceeding market expectations and reflecting pressure on the supply side, which may have a certain impact on oil prices.

At the same time, the market is closely monitoring OPEC+'s production increase plan, which plans to increase production from April onwards. This may affect the global supply landscape and create long-term pressure on oil prices.

Editor's viewpoint:

The current oil market is mainly supported by the weak US dollar, but concerns about economic recession, uncertainty about tariff policies, and growth in US supply have limited the room for oil price increases.

In the short term, the weakening of the US dollar and the rising market risk aversion will help stabilize oil prices.

In the medium term, OPEC+production increases and US supply increases may pose a downward risk to oil prices.

In the long run, if the risk of economic recession in the United States increases and market demand decreases, oil prices may come under pressure.