Bearish view: Sell the EUR/USD currency pair and set a profit point at 1.0695. Set stop loss at 1.0950. Validity period: 1-2 days,

Bullish view: Buy the EUR/USD currency pair and set a profit target of 1.0950. Set stop loss at 1.0695.

The euro/dollar exchange rate has fallen in the past few days as investors reflect on the latest Federal Reserve decision. It has fallen from its high of 1.0950 so far this year to the psychological level of 1.0800. On Monday (March 24th) in the Asian market, the euro rebounded and fluctuated against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.0848.

Despite recent encouraging US inflation data, the Federal Reserve is concerned about how Trump's tariffs will affect them in the future. The Federal Reserve believes that inflation in the United States will remain at a high level for a longer period of time, while economic growth will deteriorate, leading to stagflation. Officials still expect to cut interest rates twice more this year.

The key US data that needs to be monitored next will be the consumer confidence report to be released on Tuesday. This will be an important report providing information about the situation of American consumers as concerns about inflation are increasing. They are also concerned about the ongoing layoffs by the US government caused by Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

The United States will release its latest personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data on Friday. This is the key data that displays price changes in urban and rural areas in the United States, and it is also the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator.

The euro/dollar will also respond to the upcoming release of European consumer confidence, PMI, and inflation data. These data will help the European Central Bank make its next interest rate decision on April 17th.

As European countries have started to provide stimulus through increased spending, banks are now likely to keep interest rates unchanged. Germany has voted to increase borrowing to invest in defense and infrastructure.

Euro/USD Technical Analysis

The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has fallen in the past few days, from 1.0950 to 1.0815. It has fallen and retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0820 (1.1213-1.0177 downtrend). In addition, the currency pair formed a small double top pattern at 1.0950. Double tops are one of the most bearish forms in the market.

Most oscillation indicators have started to point downwards, indicating a loss of momentum. Therefore, the most likely scenario is for the currency pair to retrace and retest the 50% retracement point at 1.0696 (1.1213-1.0177 downtrend). If it breaks through the double peak of 1.0950, it will destroy the bearish signal.