Local protocols leverage global games

The statement from the British Foreign Office confirms that the Black Sea energy ceasefire facilitated by the Riyadh talks has become a key breakthrough. London particularly emphasizes its collaborative stance with the United States and Ukraine, and publicly appreciates the US mediation role, highlighting the Western strategic intention of promoting "big peace" through "small agreements".

Moral card and diplomatic pressure go hand in hand

The British cleverly quoted Zelensky's ceasefire proposal, portraying Ukraine as a "peace advocate" while calling on Putin's name to "immediately agree". This wording not only occupies the moral high ground, but also creates international public opinion pressure on Russia, implying that if Moscow refuses, it will take responsibility for disrupting the peace talks.

Strategic exploration of the new British government

Prime Minister Stamer's office released a "hopeful" signal through PA Media, reflecting the Labour government's desire to demonstrate continuity in foreign policy on Ukraine issues. This move is not only a continuation of the previous Conservative government's stance, but also implies considerations for enhancing the UK's international influence by promoting a ceasefire.

Summary and outlook

The current ceasefire in the Black Sea is like opening a narrow diplomatic window, but a comprehensive ceasefire still faces enormous resistance. The high-profile call from the UK is actually a probe to test the Kremlin's true intentions - if Russia refuses to respond, the West may strengthen the narrative of 'war responsibility'; If there is looseness, it may lead to larger scale multilateral negotiations. This game around ceasefire wording is rewriting the script of the second half of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The ceasefire of Black Sea shipping and energy facilities may alleviate market concerns about oil supply disruptions, weaken geopolitical risk premiums, and lead to a slight drop in oil prices. If a comprehensive ceasefire is not reached, the conflict may still recur, Russian oil exports will still be affected by sanctions, and OPEC+production reduction policy will remain a key supporting factor.

In the short term, the safe haven demand for gold may weaken, and the price of gold may experience a slight decline. But the downside space is limited: the market is still concerned about the sustainability of the ceasefire, and if conflict recurs, gold prices may rebound quickly.