Gold: Stay bullish!
On the previous trading day, gold successfully turned positive and closed. Last weekend, we pointed out that gold will show a volatile upward trend at the beginning of this week. Currently, the correction has been basically completed, and the overall situation is in a volatile bullish pattern. Based on this, we have always adhered to the layout concept of low to high. Yesterday in the market, we placed two long orders, and the market price smoothly rose, achieving the expected target.
For the intraday market, we are still bullish on one side. The market price has repeatedly hit the $3000 mark and stabilized, providing strong support at this level. The 3005-3000 support area we mentioned last Friday is the low point of this round of correction. Since the beginning of this week, the price has not fallen below this region again, but has continued to rise.
On the news front, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler believes that the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is still restrictive and the policy status is good; Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the Fed can only cut interest rates once this year, not twice; Powell reiterated that the US economy is stable and there is no rush to cut interest rates. In addition, factors such as the negotiations between Da Meimei and Da Goose have suppressed gold. However, gold did not show a significant decline, and even did not break through Friday's low point, indicating significant resistance to the downturn. The current decline is still a correction.
From the perspective of the support system, the $3000 mark has become a key psychological barrier that bears find difficult to cross. COMEX gold holdings show that non-commercial net long positions remain above 90000 lots, indicating a firm bullish stance among institutional investors. In addition, the relevant measures of global central banks... (The original information here is incomplete).
In the short term, volatility is inevitable, and profit taking and small bearish news may lead to a decline in market prices, but the overall bull market pattern remains unchanged. It is worth noting that the current negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has dropped to -0.35, indicating that the safe haven attribute surpasses the exchange rate factor. Against the backdrop of fluctuating inflation expectations and the approaching window of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical conflicts have intensified and risk aversion has risen. The value of gold as a decentralized asset allocation will continue to be highlighted. In a rising strong market, do not blindly judge the peak. Short term pullbacks are due to excessive gains, and after correction, they will still return to the bull market.
On this trading day, the market price has broken through the downward pressure line and successfully risen. At this point, we should maintain a long strategy of backtracking. The top bottom transition position of the small-scale is at 3014. You can pay attention to this support point and continue to participate in multiple orders through backtesting opportunities, mainly focusing on low to long layouts.
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