Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently revealed a heavyweight forecast to the Financial Times: interest rates will "significantly decrease" in the next 12-18 months. The statement by this 2024 FOMC member injects a shot in the arm into the long-awaited interest rate cut cycle in the market, but the accompanying warning of "uncertainty" is like a cold water, revealing the heavy fog on the path of monetary policy turning.

1、 Policy roadmap: Time window for interest rate cuts has been set

For the first time, Gulsby has provided a clear framework for expected interest rate cuts over a period of 12-18 months, which echoes the Federal Reserve's guidance of "cutting interest rates within the year" when maintaining the 4.25% -4.50% interest rate range in March. It is worth noting that this dovish official emphasized the rationality of the "wait-and-see" strategy, implying that policy adjustments will adopt a gradual approach. The metaphor of "dust undecided" vividly reflects the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve in the final stage of the inflation battle.

2、 Risk warning: Two major "roadblocks" are watching closely

The ghost of inflation reappears: Gulsby listed the rise in market inflation expectations as a "major danger signal", indicating that the Federal Reserve remains highly alert to price rebounds.

Tariff shock wave: Chairman Powell has previously warned that Trump's new tariffs may delay the process of inflation falling back. Although the official prediction is that their impact will be "short-lived," policy makers are clearly on high alert.

3、 Market Game: Reproduction of the Art of Expectancy Management

This interview can be regarded as textbook level expectation management - guiding market expectations through a time frame and reserving policy space with uncertainty. Gulsby's statement as a centrist official to some extent balanced the extreme positions of both hawks and doves within the Federal Reserve, setting the tone for communication before the June interest rate meeting.