According to an analysis by Refinitiv, US President Trump suddenly announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and trucks on Wednesday (March 26), a "nuclear grade" policy that far exceeded industry expectations and instantly triggered a shock in the automotive industry in the US, Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Data shows that nearly half of the vehicles sold in the United States rely on imports, and about 7 million consumers will be directly impacted. Despite Trump's claim that this move will revive the manufacturing industry and create jobs, industry experts generally remain skeptical. How will this' tariff storm 'rewrite market rules?

1. Consumers: The Race between Wallet and Time

The tariff effect will manifest within 2-3 months, and after dealers digest their inventory, new car prices may generally rise by 11% -12%. Some brands such as Honda and Toyota have tight inventory, and if the rush to buy continues, price increases may come earlier. Research shows that sales in March have surged by 13% due to "panic buying", but in the long run, high tariffs may force car companies to reduce their model choices, and consumers will face the dual pressure of "spending more and choosing less".

2. Detroit Big Three: 'Local Players' Accidentally Injured

Although General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis are American brands, 46% of their vehicles on sale are produced in Mexico, Canada, and other places, with profits potentially plummeting by 30%. The only 'survivor' may be Tesla - its localized supply chain has made its stock price relatively stable, but Musk still warns that 'the impact of imported component costs cannot be ignored'. Dramatically, the United Automobile Workers (UAW), which had previously opposed Trump, expressed support for tariffs and called on car companies to "bring jobs back to the United States".

3. Overseas car companies: Germany, Japan, and South Korea face precise strikes

German luxury car brands such as BMW and Mercedes Benz are the first to suffer, while "North American made" models such as Toyota Tacoma pickup trucks and Honda Civic are also doomed. Hyundai has urgently activated its electric vehicle factory in Georgia to hedge risks and plans to build a local steel plant. Analysts point out that if tariffs become long-term, some car companies may directly exit the US market instead of bearing the high cost of transferring production lines.

summarize

This 25% tariff storm is not just a simple trade barrier, but a turning point that completely reshapes the rules of the automotive industry's game. Consumers will pay for protectionism, and car companies are facing a major reshuffle in their supply chains. Whether "Made in America" can revive as a result is still unknown. The only certainty is that the global automotive industry is at a crossroads, and the future track will be filled with more variables and challenges.

Trump's car tariffs may initially support the US dollar through risk aversion and capital inflows, but if they trigger runaway inflation, trade partner countermeasures, or economic slowdown, the US dollar will face downward pressure. The key is to see if the US manufacturing industry can truly benefit from tariff protection.