The price of gold (XAU/USD) continued to rise on the second day, breaking through its historical high and trading at $3085. In the upcoming European trading session, market sentiment is affected by the car tariffs announced by US President Trump on Wednesday.

This move has raised concerns about possible retaliatory tariffs next week, and the market is full of uncertainty about the global economic outlook, which has driven funds to flow into safe haven assets.

In addition to these factors, Trump's tough trade policies are expected to affect US economic growth and force the Federal Reserve to resume its interest rate cut cycle in the near future, providing additional support for gold prices. This factor largely offsets the slight rebound of the US dollar, which typically weakens demand for goods priced in US dollars.

However, bullish investors in the gold market may pause briefly while waiting for the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, as this data could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and further impact the trend of gold.

Trump announced on Wednesday a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, expected to take effect on April 3, further escalating global trade concerns and cooling investor interest in risky assets.

According to market research, Trump's trade policies have exacerbated global economic uncertainty, leading to a general weakness in the stock market and a historic high in gold prices.

At the same time, the market has begun to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again at its June policy meeting in response to the slowdown in the US economy caused by tariffs. The US data showed strong performance, including a 2.4% annual GDP growth in the fourth quarter, higher than the previous expectation of 2.3%. These data failed to effectively support the US dollar and instead exacerbated the upward trend of gold.

According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of unemployment claims has dropped to 224000, indicating that the job market remains strong. However, market expectations for the Fed's policies have not changed as a result, and some Fed officials have expressed concerns about the impact of trade policies.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that the current moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate to address the rapid and uncertain changes in US government policies.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins has warned that the Trump administration's trade policies will push up US inflation, but it is uncertain how long this pressure will last.

The focus of market attention is still on the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about and may affect the direction of future monetary policy. Investors will carefully analyze this data to determine whether the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates and how these policies will affect the prices of the US dollar and gold.

From a technical perspective, the strong performance of gold prices near the psychological level of $3000 this week and their subsequent upward trend indicate that the upward trend of gold prices remains stable. However, the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart has shown signs of overbought, which means caution is needed in the short term.

Any pullback may attract buying support around $3050-3048, which should limit the downward trend of gold prices to the $3036-3035 range. If the gold price falls below this level, it may trigger technical selling, causing the price to drop to $3020-3019, or even fall back to the $3000 mark.

This price level will become a key support level for short-term traders, and if it is effectively breached, it may lead to a larger pullback in gold prices.

Editor's viewpoint:

The sustained rise in gold prices is closely related to trade concerns and expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. In the current global economic uncertainty, the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset is becoming increasingly apparent.

Investors should pay attention to the upcoming PCE data to better grasp the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Technically speaking, although gold prices face short-term overbought risks, strong support levels still provide support for bulls. In the foreseeable future, the gold price may experience a correction, but the overall trend remains bullish.