According to Refinitiv, US President Trump made a shocking statement on Air Force One on Sunday (March 31), announcing that the reciprocal tariff policy to be announced on "Liberation Day" on April 2 will cover all trading partners, completely breaking the previous expectation of only targeting 10-15 trade deficit countries. This policy shift marks a new stage of US trade protectionism, which may trigger an earthquake like restructuring of the global trading system.

Policy details highlight tough stance

Trump's latest statement contrasts sharply with the remarks made by his economic advisor Hassett last week. Hassett once told Fox Business that the government's tariff focus will be on 10-15 major trade deficit countries. More noteworthy is that this is already the second major policy adjustment by the Trump team in the short term. Just last week, the president hinted at the possibility of lowering some tariff rates, but now he has shifted towards a more aggressive comprehensive coverage model, which has made the market feel uneasy about this unpredictable policy direction.

The cumulative effect of existing policies

The new reciprocal tariff policy will be introduced based on multiple tariff measures already implemented by the United States. Since March 2018, the United States has imposed tariffs on imported aluminum and steel products, automobiles, and all Chinese imported goods. This layered "tariff accumulation" strategy may have a multiplier effect, leading to a greater increase in the prices of imported goods. According to JPMorgan's calculations, this series of measures may push the US core inflation rate up by 1.5 to 2 percentage points.

Dual design of execution mechanism

The memorandum signed by Trump in February this year revealed the blueprint for implementing this policy. The Office of the Trade Representative is simultaneously advancing two tasks: on the one hand, conducting country by country reviews and developing targeted countermeasures lists; On the other hand, establish an automatic equal taxation mechanism. This design that combines "precision strike" with "universal applicability" not only meets Trump's political demands for comprehensive pressure, but also leaves room for adjustment in practical operations.

The global economy is facing severe challenges

As Liberation Day approaches, several key issues remain unclear. The scale of policy implementation is still unclear. Will it truly achieve "100% equivalence" or leave room for adjustment? Will there be temporary exemption clauses similar to steel and aluminum tariffs? These issues are all affecting the nerves of the global market. On Monday, there may be significant fluctuations in the opening of the US stock market, and VIX panic index futures have shown signs of a surge in hedging demand.

This unprecedented global tariff war not only tests the resilience of economies around the world, but also has the potential to reshape the international trade order in the post pandemic era. A G20 trade official who declined to be named expressed concern, saying, "We are witnessing the most dangerous unilateralism since the establishment of the WTO system." At a critical moment of global economic recovery, Trump's decision undoubtedly casts a heavy shadow over the prospects of world trade.

Safe haven demand will become the main driver of short-term gold prices. This unprecedented global tariff policy will significantly exacerbate market uncertainty, especially when the policy is officially implemented, it is likely to trigger global stock market volatility and capital hedging demand. Historical experience shows that during the 2018-2019 trade war, gold prices rose by about 15% due to the inflow of safe haven funds. Considering the wider coverage of this policy, the impact on market sentiment may be more severe.