On Wednesday, US President Trump officially announced the imposition of equivalent tariffs on multiple trading partners including the European Union, major Asian countries, and South Korea, raising concerns in the market about the prospects for global economic growth and crude oil demand.

After Trump's press conference, the market reacted strongly, with US crude oil futures rising by $1 at one point, but then falling, reflecting investors' concerns that tariff policies may drag down global trade and economic growth.

The rise in crude oil prices last month has come to a halt, and Brent crude oil has encountered some resistance above $75 per barrel. Currently, the focus is shifting from supply shortages to Trump's tariff policies and their potential negative impact on economic growth and demand. "- Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank

In the tariff list released by Trump, the tariff rates for Canada and Mexico were not explicitly listed, sparking market speculation. Subsequently, senior White House officials confirmed to the media that goods that comply with the USMCA agreement are still exempt from tariffs, which has a certain stabilizing effect on the North American energy market.

Canada exports approximately 4 million barrels of crude oil to the United States daily, making it one of the largest suppliers of crude oil to the United States. Recently, due to market uncertainty regarding tariff policies, Canada's crude oil exports to the United States have significantly increased, leading to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report shows that US crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations, and the total inventory of refined oil also increased

The significant increase in crude oil inventories is usually a bearish factor. However, as the growth is mainly driven by a significant increase in Canadian crude oil imports, the market considers the impact to be relatively neutral. "- Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst

Despite global trade concerns raised by Trump's new tariff policy, Mexican President Xi Jinping stated on Wednesday that Mexico will not take retaliatory tariffs. This statement has to some extent eased market concerns about the escalation of the US Mexico trade conflict, slowing down the decline in oil prices.

In addition, the US government has not yet imposed additional sanctions on OPEC's major oil producing countries, which has prevented market anxiety about the supply side of crude oil from expanding.

Market outlook:

In the short term, Trump's tariff policies have increased market uncertainty, especially the potential impact on the global economy and energy demand. The future trend of oil prices will depend on the following key factors:

Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustment: If tariffs trigger inflation, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, strengthen the US dollar, or curb oil price increases

US Economic Data: The Impact of Trade Policies on Economic Growth, Especially on Manufacturing and Energy Consumption

OPEC+supply policy: Will major oil producing countries adjust their production reduction strategies due to weak global demand

Editor's viewpoint:

Although Trump's new tariff measures have not yet affected North American crude oil trade, the impact on the global trading system may weaken crude oil demand and put pressure on oil prices. The market still needs to closely monitor Federal Reserve policies, OPEC decisions, and global manufacturing data to assess further trends in oil prices.

Against the backdrop of rising global trade uncertainty, short-term oil prices may remain volatile, while long-term trends still depend on global economic growth prospects.