Oil price battle! Goldman Sachs warns: crude oil may plummet to $40 abyss
International oil prices are at a critical crossroads! Goldman Sachs' latest report has issued a heavy warning that, under the influence of multiple intertwined factors, the crude oil market may face severe fluctuations from 2025 to 2026, and in the most extreme scenario, Brent oil prices may fall below the $40/barrel mark.
1. Benchmark scenario: Mild downtrend channel
If tariffs are significantly reduced on April 9th, the United States avoids economic recession, and OPEC+increases production by 130000-140000 barrels per month in June and July, Goldman Sachs predicts:
Brent/US oil prices are expected to slightly decline to $62/58 in December 2025, and further drop to $55/51 in December 2026
2. Decline impact: accelerated decline
If the United States experiences a typical economic recession while OPEC maintains expected production:
Brent oil prices may fall to $58 in December 2025, and may approach the psychological level of $50 by December 2026
3. Global slowdown: cliff like decline
Against the backdrop of weak global GDP growth and OPEC not reducing production:
Brent oil prices may fall to $54 by the end of 2025, and may plummet to $45 by the end of 2026
4. Extreme scenario: Nightmare level collapse
If the global GDP sharply decelerates and OPEC+fully terminates production cuts:
Brent oil prices are expected to fall below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026, setting the worst decline since the pandemic
summarize
From tariff games to OPEC+production decisions, from the US economic outlook to global growth momentum, every variable adds weight to the balance of the crude oil market. Goldman Sachs' "Oil Price Crisis Roadmap" warns that traders must be prepared for possible super volatility - after all, when a storm strikes, even the bottom line of $40 may be easily breached.
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