On Tuesday (April 8th), US Trade Representative Greer issued a clear signal during a Senate hearing that tariff policies will not be relaxed in the short term, and emphasized that the short-term pain borne by businesses is a "necessary evil" to reshape the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry. This statement means that global trade tensions will further escalate, and the pressure of supply chain adjustments will continue to increase.

1. Comprehensive tightening of tariff policies

Greer confirmed that the equivalent tariffs on 57 trading partners came into effect early Wednesday morning, adding to the previously imposed 10% tariffs on all other countries, fully strengthening US trade barriers. It specifically pointed out that the previous tariff exemption policy was like a "flawed Swiss cheese" that failed to effectively curb the continued expansion of the US $1.2 trillion trade deficit.

2. Negotiation conditions: Market access is key

At present, the United States is engaged in intensive negotiations with over 50 countries, but its stance is firm - only when trading partners substantially reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers can tariff reductions be considered. It is worth noting that retaliatory measures taken by some countries have prompted the United States to further increase tariffs on related goods, with some categories even rising to 104%.

3. The global trade pattern is clearly differentiated

Greer revealed that most trading partners choose to seek reciprocal solutions through negotiations, but there are also some economies that adopt a confrontational stance. The Office of the United States Trade Representative is accelerating the negotiation process, but has made it clear that it will not provide a buffer period for companies facing difficulties in adjusting their supply chains, emphasizing that "changing the traditional trade model is imperative".

summarize

The signal released by this hearing indicates that US trade policy has entered a period of deep adjustment. Against the backdrop of weak global economic recovery, the continued escalation of tariff measures will bring greater pressure to multinational corporations. Whether this strategy of exchanging short-term pains for long-term benefits will be effective remains to be seen, but the intensification of global trade frictions in the short term is a foregone conclusion.

From the perspective of market sentiment, the uncertainty brought about by the escalation of trade frictions will directly stimulate the safe haven demand for gold. Looking back at the period of the 2018 trade war, market risk aversion drove gold prices up by a cumulative 18%, indicating that in times of trade tensions, gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, often receives strong support.

From the perspective of inflation transmission mechanism, the new tariff measures will directly push up domestic inflation pressure in the United States by raising the prices of imported goods. Against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations, gold's anti inflation properties will become more attractive. Investors need to closely monitor the trend of the 10-year inflation protected bond yield in the United States. Once the real interest rate falls, it will provide additional upward momentum for gold prices.

In Sanya City, spot gold rebounded slightly and once again rose above the 3000 mark, reaching a high of $3007.97 per ounce as of 09:52, with an increase of about 0.87%.