Trump announced the suspension of a new round of tariffs on most economies for 90 days, but at the same time raised the tariff rate on major Asian countries to 125%, effective immediately. This decision caught the market off guard, and oil prices, which had plummeted nearly 7% at the beginning of the session, quickly reversed.

Brent crude oil futures rose $2.66 to close at $65.48 per barrel; WTI crude oil futures rose $2.77 to close at $62.35; The intraday lows were all new lows since 2021, followed by the largest single day rebound of the year. But the rebound during the Asian session on Thursday did not continue, and there was still a slight decline. In the short term, it is in an emotional dominant stage, so beware of a second downturn.

We have reached a turning point in the trade conflict, and Trump has given some time to countries that have shown a desire to reach an agreement to lift tariffs to resolve the issue. "- Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group." Trump's approach is to put Asian powers on an economic island. "- Flynn added

Asian powers announced an 84% tariff on US goods starting from Thursday. Canada and the European Union have also initiated retaliatory tariff measures against the United States; The EU will impose a 25% tariff on US goods in the first round, targeting key industries such as automobiles, agriculture, and energy;

The market is concerned that the global consumption and logistics system will further shrink, impacting oil demand. According to market research, "If multilateral trade relations continue to deteriorate, crude oil demand may fall into a 'anti globalization contraction'

OPEC+has decided to increase production by 411000 barrels per day starting from May to cope with financial pressures on some member countries. The increase in production will suppress short-term price upward space.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA): As of last week, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels; Previously, the market expected an increase of 1.4 million barrels, but inventory exceeded expectations, leading some investors to be cautious about the upward trend.

This round of rebound is more news driven, and the supply and demand side has not yet formed a basis for support reversal. If there is no sign of easing global trade uncertainty, oil prices will once again test low support;

The follow-up focus will be on whether Trump further adjusts tariff policies towards other countries, whether OPEC cuts production plans, and the intensity of the May summer gasoline consumption season in the United States.

Editor's viewpoint:

Although the recent surge in oil prices may seem optimistic, its fundamental driving force is Trump's "selective tolerance" tariff exemption policy, which is essentially a tentative restoration of global market confidence. The rapid response of Asian powers and the synchronized actions of Canada and the European Union have left the market deeply mired in trade concerns.

On the supply and demand side, OPEC+production increases and high US production will suppress prices. Therefore, although there is a short-term technical rebound in oil prices, the overall structure is still in a medium-term channel of "weak oscillation", and operational recommendations should be conservative and cautious.