Trump announced a 90 day suspension of high tariffs on most countries, but raised the total tax rate on major Asian countries to 145%, sparking renewed concerns in the market about global trade relations. The WTI crude oil futures price in the United States fell by $2.28, closing at $60.07, a decrease of 3.7%;

Brent crude oil fell $2.15 to $63.33, a decrease of 3.3%, giving up the previous day's gains; The market originally rebounded due to Trump's suspension of tariffs, but now it has fallen again, indicating that investors have lost confidence in the credibility of the policy.

Trump's unpredictable policies caught the energy market off guard, especially against the backdrop of already pressured global demand. "- According to market research

Against the backdrop of Asian powers imposing an additional 84% tariff on US goods, US crude oil exports to the country plummeted to 112000 barrels per day in March, halving from the same period last year.

Shipping data agency Kpler pointed out that the country may further reduce its imports of crude oil from the United States to counter pressure from the US; Ritterbusch and Associates stated that this move may lead to the continued accumulation of US inventory, creating a risk of oversupply;

According to EIA data from the United States, crude oil inventories surged by 2.6 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations by 1.4 million barrels; The surge in inventory combined with a decline in exports has made it difficult for oil prices to rebound in the short term.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 on Thursday, while warning that if the trade situation continues to deteriorate, oil demand growth will significantly slow down.

The institution also lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth, implying that crude oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the future; Macquarie analysts say that US crude oil inventories may rise again this week, becoming the main source of downward pressure on oil prices in the short term;

This also reflects a deeper understanding of the causal relationship between high tariffs and global economic slowdown in the market. Tariffs not only harm exports, but more importantly, they have a systemic impact on the energy market through the mechanism of demand contraction. "- Macquarie Energy Analysis Team

Technically, the support for oil prices around $60 is weakening, and if subsequent data does not improve, further testing may be conducted in the $58 or lower range. Brent and WTI contracts both formed a "swallowing bearish candlestick" trend, with short-term trends turning bearish; The RSI and MACD indicators have entered oversold territory, but there has been no significant increase in buying activity;

At present, unless there is an unexpected improvement in inventory or export data, there is still room for oil prices to decline.

Editor's viewpoint:

Behind the current fluctuations in international oil prices is the deep anxiety of the market towards extreme uncertainty in global trade policies. Trump's "pause+increase" approach, while stabilizing relations with non Central economies in the short term, has also dealt a blow to global supply chains and energy consumption confidence.

If oil market inventories continue to rise and global manufacturing data is weak, oil prices below $60 may become the new normal.