This week's gold trading survey shows that institutional and retail traders have divergent expectations for the future trend of gold, but most analysts and retail investors still hold a bullish attitude. Next week, the market will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US non farm payroll report to find further clues on the trend of gold prices. At the same time, analysts' perspectives provide us with a deep understanding of market dynamics, helping traders make wiser decisions.

Voting Results

In this week's Kitco News gold survey, a total of 16 analysts participated, of which 7 (44%) predicted that gold prices would rise next week, while only 4 (25%) predicted that prices would fall. The remaining 5 analysts (31%) believe that gold prices will consolidate horizontally next week. Meanwhile, in Kitco's online survey, a total of 193 retail investors participated in the voting, of which 127 (66%) were bullish, 37 (19%) were bearish, and 29 (15%) expected gold prices to fluctuate within a certain range.

This week's review of the gold market

At the beginning of this week, spot gold prices opened at a level of $2400 per ounce, which provided strong support and resistance throughout the summer. Earlier on Monday, gold prices sharply fell from $2407 per ounce to $2386 per ounce, but Asian traders subsequently pushed spot prices back above $2400. However, this momentum did not continue, and gold prices fell again to around $2380 before Wednesday.

Subsequently, the gold price began its strongest and most stable rise of the week, rising from $2388.47 at 2:15 am on Tuesday to a weekly high of $2430.37 before 11:00 am on Wednesday. However, this high level did not persist, and gold prices sharply fell during the remaining time of the North American trading session and further declined overnight, ultimately falling to a weekly low of $2354.60 at 1:30 pm on Thursday.

At this level, gold once again became attractive as bulls pushed the price to the mid $2360 range at the end of the North American trading session, then continued to rise until a double peak of $2376 around midnight, followed by a slight decline. The North American trading session on Friday brought a new round of optimism towards interest rate cuts and rolling futures contracts, driving the steady rise of gold prices, testing the resistance level of $2390 twice before falling back to the mid $2380 level.

Analyst viewpoint compilation

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, is optimistic about the short-term performance of gold and believes that if the Federal Reserve shows a dovish stance at the meeting and hints at a possible interest rate cut in September, it will help gold prices rebound.

Senior market analyst Darin Newsom predicts that gold prices will continue to decline. If the December gold contract closes lower this Friday, there may be a third consecutive week of decline next week, with support levels around $2350.

Marc Chandler, Managing Director of Bannockburn, predicts that the gold market will experience consolidation, with gold prices finding support after approaching the target price of $2350. However, technical indicators show a decrease in momentum, with the 5-day moving average falling below the 20 day moving average for the first time.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, is bullish on gold and believes that as the possibility of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts increases, gold prices will rise.

VR Metals/Resource Letter publisher Mark Leibovit is cautious and believes there is a risk of gold prices falling to $1900-2000.

Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options, pointed out that the volatility of gold prices this week is mainly affected by poor earnings reports and rolling futures contracts, and it is expected that gold prices will follow the stock market trend in the short term.

Gartman Letter founder Dennis Gartman is firmly bullish on gold, believing that any pullback is a buying opportunity and that gold is in a bull market for a long time.

Sean Lusk, Co Director of Business Hedging at Walsh Trading, believes that the current geopolitical, economic, and financial turmoil provides support for gold, and if the price falls below the $2285-2290 range, it may further decline.

Market Focus Outlook

The trading risks for next week will be concentrated in the last two days, when the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision and press conference, followed by the release of the July non farm payroll report on Friday morning. Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, precious metal traders will be closely monitoring whether Powell's tone will change due to this week's higher than expected July PCE inflation report.

Other noteworthy events include Tuesday's Jolts job vacancy and July consumer confidence survey, Wednesday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision and ADP employment data, as well as Thursday's Bank of England interest rate announcement, weekly unemployment claims, and ISM manufacturing PMI.

The market will also receive new data from the weak housing sector in the United States next week, including the S&P Case Shiller home price index released on Tuesday, as well as MBA mortgage applications and pending home sales data on Wednesday.

Overall, despite the volatility in the gold market this week, most analysts and retail investors remain optimistic about the short-term prospects of gold. Next week, the market will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US non farm payroll report to find further clues on the trend of gold prices. At the same time, analysts' perspectives provide us with a deep understanding of market dynamics, helping traders make wiser decisions.