After two consecutive weeks of decline, the global crude oil market stabilized on Monday. Brent crude oil is hovering around $65, while the US WTI remains above $61.

The market is weighing two major influencing factors: the latest trade measures taken by the United States, and the "constructive engagement" of high-level officials from the US and Iran in Oman.

Trump has suspended tariffs on some consumer electronics products and hinted that "specific tariff measures will be announced later," leaving market uncertainty about future trade policies high.

At the same time, Washington and Tehran held their first high-level meeting since 2022 in Oman over the weekend and tentatively agreed to continue negotiations on the nuclear program, which was interpreted by the market as a positive signal of potential supply easing.

The easing signal may open up new space for crude oil supply, but the outlook remains highly uncertain. "- Market observer

Despite the easing of geopolitical tensions, the oil market is still shrouded in trade concerns. Especially the confrontation between the United States and Asian countries is seen as one of the triggers that could trigger a global economic recession; In addition, OPEC+'s unexpected decision to accelerate the restoration of some of the previously reduced production capacity has further heightened market concerns about future oversupply.

The continuous decline in oil prices since early April is a concentrated response to these 'macro pressures'. Goldman Sachs Group has released its latest forecast, stating that the crude oil market will face significant supply-demand imbalances by 2025.

Although the market has partially anticipated an increase in inventory, we expect a surplus of 800000 barrels per day for the whole year. "- Goldman Sachs Commodity Analysis Team

Goldman Sachs predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 will be $63 per barrel; The bank believes that if the trade conflict continues, the prospects for energy demand recovery will be further limited.

The focus of the subsequent market will be on the monthly outlook of two authoritative energy institutions: OPEC's monthly market report will be released later on Monday, which is expected to reveal the latest production and demand trends;

The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its annual energy outlook on Tuesday, which for the first time covers the market outlook for 2026.

In terms of market structure, fluctuations in crude oil have once again activated concerns about global inventory expansion and "temporary oversupply". Unlike traditional safe haven cycles, during this round of oil price adjustment, traditional safe haven assets such as US bonds and the US dollar weakened synchronously, highlighting the "disorder" of market safe haven logic.

I think the upside potential for crude oil is limited, "said Vanda Hari, founder of Vanda Insights." The key is whether Trump's attitude towards tariffs continues to be aggressive

Editor's viewpoint:

Geopolitical easing and short-term easing of market tension through US Iran contacts; On the other hand, trade concerns and the rapid release of production capacity have formed a "double ceiling" that suppresses oil prices.

Goldman Sachs' forecast of an excess of 800000 barrels per day sets the annual tone for the market, indicating an increase in the difficulty of "supply-demand rebalancing". In this context, the trend of crude oil will depend more on the resilience of the global economy and whether trade policies will continue to be aggressive in the future.