The United States is facing a more severe stagflation than in the 1970s, and there are investment opportunities in gold mining stocks

2025-04-14 2344

Gold prices hit a historic high, the US dollar plummeted, and US bond yields rose amidst the decline in US stocks. The market is sending warning signals that the global economic order is undergoing changes. According to Peter Schiff, Chief Market Strategist of Europe Pacific Asset Management, the United States is the epicenter of this crisis. Schiff said, "This will be a much more severe financial crisis than 2008, but it won't be global, it's an American crisis

The EUR/USD has fallen to a three-year low, while spot gold hit a new high on Monday (April 14th), with the largest weekly increase since 2020 last week. Schiff believes that the surge in gold prices does not reflect temporary safe haven behavior, but rather a structural restructuring of global capital.

He said, "The price of gold will rise much higher. Going back to 2009, 2010, 2011... when the price of gold was $1000, I thought it would rise to $5000. But now it's 2025, and we've created more money and more debt... At this point, $5000 is nothing, just a stopover on the road to higher prices

In recent years, central banks around the world have been buying gold in large quantities, and Schiff believes that this trend confirms that the world is moving away from the US dollar. Schiff said, "They are preparing for a world where the US dollar is no longer the center of the monetary system

Last week's market turbulence occurred after President Trump announced the comprehensive imposition of tariffs.

Although many economists predict that tariffs will strengthen the US dollar, Schiff said that the actual situation is exactly the opposite. He said, "Every economist and every market strategist is saying that tariffs will benefit the US dollar. I am the only one who says, 'No, tariffs are actually not good for the US dollar.'

The latest confidence data released by the University of Michigan last Friday showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 in April, the lowest level since mid-2022. The inflation expectation for the next year has soared to 6.7%, the highest level since 1981, while the inflation expectation for 5-10 years has reached 4.4%, more than twice the Federal Reserve's 2% target level.

Schiff said, "The Federal Reserve has always claimed that the long-term expectation remains at 2%. What are they saying? Nothing is fixed at 2%. We have been drifting for a long time, and now we are at 6.7%, and it will be much higher than that

He warned that the United States is entering a much more severe stagflation period than in the 1970s. Schiff said, "We will almost fall into a depression, and inflation will be much higher than at that time. Very high inflation, I mean a terrible economic recession. Therefore, the most severe stagflation may occur

Schiff believes that the economic consequences are not the result of foreign manipulation, but rather the result of decades of failed domestic policies. He said: "For decades, we Americans have been living beyond our means. Based on our collective productivity, our standard of living is higher than the standard of living we really have the right to enjoy... We must live within our means, which means that we must greatly reduce consumption, and we must save more money."

When asked if the United States could regain control over its currency future, Schiff expressed deep skepticism. He said, "We're bankrupt, we have trillions of dollars in deficits. So how can we buy gold? Will we be heavily in debt just to buy more gold

Although central banks around the world continue to purchase physical gold at record rates, he emphasized that wiser trades are now hidden beneath the surface. He said, "When you buy a gold mining company, you are buying gold that is still underground, and in history, underground gold has never been cheaper than gold on the ground

Schiff believes that despite the recent rise in gold prices, most gold mining stocks are still in a significant discount state, overlooked by Wall Street and held by institutions. He said, "Gold mining stocks have never been so cheap, not only relative to gold, but also relative to the S&P 500 index." He added that the sharp drop in energy prices relative to gold has greatly improved mining profit margins and laid the foundation for explosive growth.

Schiff said, "Their profits are about to soar because oil has never been so cheap relative to gold in history, and their P/E ratio is in single digits... When you make three or four times on these gold stocks, I think you can quickly do it and then settle the profits and buy more physical gold." He expects the performance of gold stocks to surpass gold itself several times.

In Schiff's view, the only way to recover is through painful restructuring. He said, "We must go back to work. We must stop spending. We must start saving money. We must establish factories and supply chains. If we don't do the right thing, we will have a lot of pain, but it won't be constructive, it will only lead to long-term, more, and more severe pain

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