In the morning session of Sanya, international oil prices surged and fell back. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.45% to $64.55 per barrel, while US WTI crude oil fell 0.2% to $60.64 per barrel. Despite a slight rebound, the two major benchmark crude oils have not yet recovered from the approximately 13% decline since the beginning of this month.

Traders generally attribute this phenomenon to the escalating trade barrier policies of the United States and the resulting global economic uncertainty.

If risky assets can rebound from the current trade pressure, oil prices may retest the WTI's $65 mark, otherwise they will remain in the $60 to $62 range for the long term. "- Tetsu Emori, CEO of Emori Fund Management

IEA lowers demand forecast: annual growth rate hits five-year low

According to the monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday, it is expected that global oil demand will increase by 730000 barrels per day in 2025, far lower than last month's forecast of 1.03 million barrels per day and the lowest growth rate in five years.

The key factors causing this downward adjustment include the punitive tariffs imposed by the US on major trading partners, as well as the resulting slowdown in economic activity and decreased business confidence.

This decline even exceeds the production forecast cut made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday, further exacerbating market concerns about supply and demand imbalances.

OPEC+continues to increase production, coupled with friction between China and the United States, putting pressure on the oil market

Apart from the pressure on the demand side, the pressure on the supply side has not weakened either. The continuous increase in production by OPEC+countries, represented by Russia, has further highlighted the loose supply side, which has been offset by the decline in demand, leading the market into a stalemate of "high inventory+low demand".

According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending April 11, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased by 3 million barrels and 3.2 million barrels, respectively, indicating a structural change in the refined oil market.

US President Trump recently raised tariffs on goods from Asian countries to 145%, leading to the rapid implementation of countermeasures by the latter, including import bans on US aircraft. According to market research, Asian governments have requested their airlines to suspend the acceptance of new Boeing aircraft.

This trend has been interpreted by the market as a signal of escalating trade tensions, which may further suppress demand for aviation fuel and thus affect the global energy consumption structure.

Several financial institutions, including UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, have lowered their crude oil price forecasts, reflecting their pessimistic expectations for the market outlook at the institutional level.

Although WTI crude oil has built some support around $60 in the short term, the decrease in trading volume and the weakening of the moving average indicate insufficient rebound momentum. If macro positive support is not obtained in the future, the possibility of further testing towards the key support area of 58.80 cannot be ruled out.

Editor's viewpoint:

The current global oil market is facing dual challenges of supply and demand mismatch and policy risks. The changes in US led trade policies have suppressed the energy consumption structure, and the rare significant reduction in global oil demand growth expectations by the IEA has also exposed the market's high vigilance towards future economic growth.

Against the backdrop of OPEC+'s lack of willingness to reduce production, it is difficult for oil prices to experience a structural rebound in the short term.