During the weekly European trading session, international oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude oil and US WTI crude oil both falling. Brent crude oil fell to $63.75 per barrel at one point, a decrease of 1.69%, and then slightly rebounded to around $64.29. At the same time, US WTI crude oil has not been spared, falling below the $60 mark during trading and hitting a low of $59.87 per barrel, currently hovering around $60.30. This decline is not accidental, but a direct reaction of the market's concerns about the global trade situation.

Expectations of demand growth have been hit hard, and institutions have urgently lowered their forecasts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a warning in its latest report that global oil demand growth in 2025 may drop to its lowest level in five years due to intensified trade frictions. The IEA has significantly lowered its demand growth forecast for this year from 1.03 million barrels per day to 730000 barrels per day, a decline far exceeding market expectations. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has previously lowered its demand forecast, but the IEA's adjustment is more aggressive, highlighting the market's deep concerns about the economic outlook.

Imad Al Khayyat, head of research at the London Stock Exchange Group, stated that the trade war has become the biggest threat to the global economy and oil demand. He warned that if tensions persist, the risk of a global economic recession will significantly increase, and oil prices may be further under pressure.

Analysts warn: Short term rebound cannot mask long-term risks

Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong pointed out that although oil prices have occasionally rebounded recently, the uncertainty brought by the trade war still dominates market sentiment. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming economic data, and any signs of weakness could trigger a new round of selling.

Several international investment banks have quickly adjusted their strategies, with institutions such as UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC lowering their crude oil price expectations. The market generally believes that if the trade dispute cannot be resolved, the downward trend of oil prices will be difficult to reverse.

Conclusion: Where will oil prices go in the future?

The shadow of the trade war has not dissipated, and concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth continue to ferment. Under the dual pressure of weak demand and oversupply, it may be difficult for oil prices to improve in the short term. The future market trend will depend on the progress of trade negotiations and economic data performance, and investors need to remain vigilant to cope with possible market fluctuations.