According to the latest report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the global economic growth rate may sharply drop to 2.3% by 2025, a significant decline from 2.8% in 2024. This predicted value is not only far below pre pandemic levels, but also indicates that the world economy is entering a recession channel. The report emphasizes that the speed and extent of the current economic slowdown are worrying, and may record the weakest growth performance in nearly a decade.

Trade war becomes the biggest risk source

The report directly targets the rapidly escalating global trade tensions in recent times. The comprehensive tariff policy suddenly announced by the Trump administration in early April, especially the 145% punitive tariff imposed on goods from major Asian countries, is seen as a key factor in triggering market turbulence. Although tariff measures in some economies have been temporarily suspended, this series of protectionist measures has severely undermined investor confidence, leading multinational corporations to postpone investment and recruitment plans.

Multiple crises overlapping and fermenting

UNCTAD warns that the global economy is currently facing the most severe policy uncertainty since the beginning of this century. The spread of trade protectionism is disrupting the global supply chain system, and international trade flows may encounter systemic blockages. The report specifically points out that the risk of economic recession in the United States is rapidly accumulating, and the impact on developing countries may be more severe. This chain reaction is forming a vicious cycle, further suppressing global economic activity.

Urgent call for policy adjustments

Faced with the deteriorating economic outlook, UNCTAD urgently recommends excluding the least developed countries from the tariff list. The report analysis shows that imposing trade restrictions on these fragile economies not only has little effect, but also exacerbates global economic imbalances. Experts emphasize that countries need to strengthen policy coordination and avoid further escalation of unilateralism measures, otherwise the growth forecast of 2.3% may be further lowered.

Conclusion: The Decision at the Crossroads

At a critical moment when the global economy is facing a major turning point, the UNCTAD report undoubtedly sounds the alarm. As the shadow of the trade war continues to envelop policy makers around the world, they are facing a severe test: whether to continue sliding into the abyss of protectionism or to work together to revive the multilateral trading system? This choice will determine the trajectory of global economic development in the coming years.

Gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, is usually sought after when the economic outlook deteriorates and geopolitical risks increase. If investors' concerns about recession continue to ferment, funds may accelerate into the gold market, supporting further upward movement of gold prices.