During Thursday's Asian trading session, USD/CHF consolidated around 0.8160, just one step away from the historical low of 0.8099 hit the previous trading day, which is the lowest level since September 2011. Since US President Trump announced a new round of tariff investigations on April 2nd, the US dollar has been under continuous pressure, and the demand for the Swiss franc as a traditional safe haven currency has significantly increased.

The Swiss franc has risen over 7% against the US dollar since early April, making it the strongest performing G10 currency.

The US tariff policy has expanded to key resource industries, increasing market uncertainty. The Trump administration recently announced the launch of an import investigation into key mineral resources, covering multiple strategic industries such as copper, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and timber, marking a further escalation of trade concerns with Asian countries.

The market is concerned that the insufficient production capacity of these key resources in the United States will lead to long-term supply chain bottlenecks, thereby affecting overall economic performance.

Investors are reassessing the safety of US dollar assets as policy uncertainty continues to rise. "- Christina Liu, Global Forex Strategy Analyst at UBS

Although the latest data shows that retail sales in the United States increased by 1.4% in March, significantly higher than expectations and previous values, this data has not changed the overall weak pattern of the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained around 99.60 on Thursday, slightly above its previous low.

Investors are currently turning their attention to upcoming economic data such as US building permits, new housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and initial jobless claims to determine whether the US dollar is expected to experience a temporary rebound.

The Swiss National Bank is facing challenges, and the appreciation of the Swiss franc may trigger a policy shift. The sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc also has side effects: deflationary pressure in Switzerland has significantly increased. The market is beginning to speculate whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may reconsider its negative interest rate policy to curb currency appreciation.

However, due to Switzerland being repeatedly accused of "currency manipulation" by the United States in recent years, SNB is currently particularly cautious in intervening in the foreign exchange market.

The Swiss National Bank's intervention space is limited, and it may adopt more indirect methods to control the pace of Swiss franc appreciation. "- Hans Keller, Senior Economic Advisor at Credit Suisse

Editor's viewpoint:

With the continuous expansion and increasing uncertainty of US tariff policies, the demand for safe haven in global financial markets has rapidly rebounded, and the Swiss franc has gained unprecedented favor as a traditional safe haven currency. Despite some strong economic data in the United States, the chaotic policy signals have resulted in a lack of sustained rebound momentum for the US dollar.

The appreciation of the Swiss franc has helped attract global capital inflows as a safe haven, but it has also brought policy pressure to the Swiss National Bank. Against the backdrop of unresolved external disturbances, the USD/CHF may remain weak in the coming trading weeks unless the Federal Reserve sends a clear tightening signal or the international situation eases.