At the beginning of Monday trading, Brent crude oil futures fell 85 cents to $66.75 per barrel, a decrease of 1.32%; WTI crude oil fell 117 cents to $62.83 per barrel, a decrease of 1.83%. The decline was mainly affected by the breakthrough progress made in the US Iran nuclear talks over the weekend.

The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that both sides have begun to develop a framework for a potential nuclear agreement, while US officials have described the negotiations as making "very good progress".

Market interpretation suggests that if Iranian crude oil gradually returns to the international market in the coming months, it will significantly ease the global supply shortage and thus curb short-term oil price increases.

Last week, oil prices recorded a 5% increase due to sanctions and trade hopes

Prior to the US Iran negotiations, oil prices had risen continuously for three days, mainly driven by the following two factors:

The United States has imposed new sanctions on Iran, including measures against an independent refinery located in a major Asian country, known as the "Teapot Refinery," for allegedly processing Iranian crude oil. This has intensified market concerns about supply disruptions in Iran.

Hope for a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union: US President Trump has stated that reaching an agreement with Europe "will not be a big problem" and is expected to alleviate the inhibitory impact of tariffs on crude oil demand.

The comprehensive factors drove Brent and WTI crude oil to record a rise of about 5% last week, marking the first weekly increase in nearly three weeks.

Geopolitics remains a potential destabilizing factor in the market

Although the progress of the nuclear agreement has brought benefits, geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated. Despite Putin's announcement of the Easter ceasefire, both sides accused each other of violating the agreement on Sunday, stating that hundreds of attacks still occurred. The Kremlin has stated that it will not extend the ceasefire period, indicating that regional tensions may still worsen.

If the nuclear agreement negotiations break down again or the United States increases sanctions again, oil prices may still quickly rebound.

Traders will focus on the progress of the upcoming US Iran negotiations, US inventory data, and whether OPEC will make adjustments to recent price fluctuations in the short term.

Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank, pointed out that if the nuclear talks continue to make progress, the supply structure of the crude oil market will undergo substantial changes, and oil prices may fall to the $60 zone in the coming months.

A market analyst who declined to be named said, "If Iranian oil returns to the market and global trade no longer deteriorates, the logic of supply side tightening will reverse

Editor's viewpoint:

The progress made in the US Iran nuclear talks undoubtedly suppresses short-term oil prices, and market expectations of a return to supply will suppress speculative bullish sentiment. However, considering that the implementation of the agreement still faces complex procedures, coupled with the unstable geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and incomplete OPEC regulation, the oil market will continue to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the future.

Focus on the details of the US Iran negotiations, changes in US energy inventories, and signals for a new round of OPEC meetings.