During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, Brent crude oil futures rose 51 cents to $66.77 per barrel, an increase of 0.8%; US WTI crude oil rose 51 cents to $63.59 per barrel, an increase of 0.8%. This trend is mainly driven by the technical replenishment of the previous trading day's decline.

After experiencing a significant sell-off on Monday, some short covering operations provided support, but the overall market is still full of uncertainty, "said Hiroyuki Kikugawa, Chief Strategist of Nissan Securities' Investment Division

The economic headwinds remain unresolved, and the rise in oil prices lacks sustained momentum

Despite the short-term rebound, oil prices are still under multiple pressures: firstly, global trade concerns continue to escalate, and the market is worried that it will drag down global economic growth, especially the deteriorating prospects of the United States as the world's largest crude oil consumer;

The second is that the policy path of the Federal Reserve is unclear, and Trump has repeatedly pressured for interest rate cuts, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Kikukawa Hiroyuki added, "The lack of confidence in the Federal Reserve's policies, coupled with rising recession concerns, will limit further upside potential for crude oil. WTI crude oil may remain volatile between $55-65 in the near future

The market is cautious about the prospects of the US economy

According to market research, over half of investors believe that the current tariff policy is highly likely to trigger a US economic recession in the next 12 months, with a median market forecast of a recession probability close to 50%. This prospect directly affects the expected demand for crude oil.

Meanwhile, US President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell again on Monday, stating that unless interest rates are cut soon, the US economy will face the risk of slowing down. This statement has intensified market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and led to a decline in the Nasdaq index and a three-year low in the US dollar index.

Russia lowers oil forecast, global demand confidence lacking

The Russian Ministry of Economy recently lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025, which is nearly 17% lower than the estimate in September last year. This reflects the cautious attitude of major oil producing countries around the world towards future demand and price prospects.

Inventory data may cause short-term fluctuations

According to Monday's market survey, US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to decrease last week, while distillate inventories may increase. The market is paying attention to the upcoming release of data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) to assess the impact of inventory changes on oil prices.

Editor's viewpoint:

The current oil price is in a fragile rebound stage, supported more by short-term technical factors rather than fundamental improvements. Trade concerns and policy uncertainty are continuously weakening market confidence, making it difficult to break through key resistance areas in the short term.

Unless there is a substantial improvement in the global demand outlook or a significant decrease in inventory, crude oil prices may continue to remain in a volatile range. Monitoring whether WTI effectively holds above $60 will become a barometer for future trends.