Market analysts Carter Johnson and Yvonne Yue Li wrote that according to a recent survey, if Trump were to return to the White House, gold would be the best investment asset, not the US dollar.

Survey: If Trump takes office again, most respondents are more optimistic about gold

Among 480 respondents, there are twice as many who support using gold as a safe haven tool in the event of Trump's re-election as those who support the US dollar. More than 60% of respondents believe that if Republican candidates win re-election, the US dollar will ultimately weaken.

This survey was conducted from July 22nd to 26th, with respondents including portfolio managers, economists, and retail investors.

History is on their side. During the four years of Trump's presidency, the Bloomberg dollar index fell by over 10%, while spot gold prices rose by over 50%.

Trump's tax cuts, tariffs, and regulatory easing policies are seen by Wall Street as inflationary and may even force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. The red wave of Republican control of Congress in November gives Trump more room for maneuver in formulating comprehensive economic policies, which could further ignite precious metals as prices hover near historical highs.

Morgan Stanley analyst Gregory Shearer wrote on July 24th, "Gold is in the best position to rise. Geopolitical tensions, the growing deficit in the United States, diversification of reserve banks, and inflation hedging have all driven up gold prices, and these factors may continue to exist regardless of the election results, but they may be further amplified in the event of Trump's re-election or Republican control of Congress

The current macro background is once again favorable for gold. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September. Since 2022, central banks around the world have been aggressively buying gold to diversify their assets and reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

Two thirds of the respondents expect that Trump's re-election will weaken the position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at Stoneex Group, stated that as the private sector joins the ranks of the central bank, Trump's second term may exacerbate the trend away from the US dollar.

He stated that the client's investment portfolio is increasing its holdings of gold. Many people expect the US dollar to weaken. Technology, structure, and fundamental factors all support gold.

There is still controversy over whether Trump's return to power will weaken the US dollar

However, betting that the US dollar will weaken under Trump's leadership is a controversial viewpoint, as top economists on Wall Street believe that Trump's second term will strengthen rather than weaken the dollar. They said that Trump tends to impose stricter tariffs on US trading partners and adopt fiscal policies that increase deficits, which may interrupt the Fed's expected interest rate cuts.

The respondents have different opinions on the impact of Trump's economic policies on the US dollar. One interviewee believes that regardless of the election results, the US dollar will weaken: "Continued high deficits and low interest rates will further drive de dollarization and trigger a sovereign debt crisis. Harris won the same way

In times of geopolitical tension, the US dollar and US treasury bond bonds are often regarded as global safe haven assets. But the survey results indicate that the US dollar may not benefit from the political turmoil within the country.

XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said, "Due to a potentially disorderly election and the fiscal impact of Trump's presidency, the United States is creating its own risk premium, making the 2025 dollar a risk

Daily chart of spot gold