Iran may soon attack Israel, causing gold prices to soar over $20 in the short term

2024-08-02 2288

On Friday (August 2), during the Asian market session, spot gold suddenly rose rapidly by over $20 in the short term, reaching a high of $2459.32 per ounce, and currently falling back to around $2453 per ounce. FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik wrote an article analyzing the prospects of gold technology.

Bednarik pointed out that the price of gold is maintaining its upward trend, staying near a two-week high, and the goal for gold prices is to expand its gains.

Earlier in the Asian market, spot gold fell to $2434.90 per ounce, hitting a period low; Subsequently, the gold price rebounded significantly, currently reaching a high of $2459.32 per ounce.

Analysts point out that the tense situation in the Middle East has stimulated safe haven buying, which has driven gold prices to strengthen.

Iran may soon attack Israel

According to the Axios website on Thursday local time, three US officials told Axios that the Biden administration is convinced that Iran will attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. The United States is preparing for Iran's attack on Israel in the coming days.

US officials have stated that they expect any retaliatory actions by Iran to follow the script of the April 13 attack on Israel, but on a larger scale, with the possibility of Hezbollah's involvement.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior political and military officials have stated that Iran will retaliate against the assassination of Haniyeh.

A senior Israeli official said that the Israeli intelligence community expects Iran to launch a large-scale missile attack on Israel.

Focus on Non Farm and Non Farm Reports

Traders are currently waiting for Friday's US non farm payroll report to obtain more clues about the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Economists predict that the United States will add 175000 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.

Analysts point out that if non farm payroll data falls short of expectations, the US dollar may be hit, thereby stimulating further increases in gold prices.

Short term technical prospects for gold

Bednarik stated that the daily chart of gold shows that the price of gold is still above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $2438.75 per ounce, which is the short-term support level for the rebound trend in June/July. The gold price encountered buyers near the 61.8% retracement level, indicating that bulls hope to push up the gold price and are also willing to replenish their positions at low levels.

The daily chart shows that gold prices are developing above all of its moving averages. The gold price is above the bullish moving average. The 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides short-term support around $2410 per ounce, while accelerating upward to break through the longer-term moving average. At the same time, technical indicators lack directional strength, but are still at a positive level, consistent with the dominant position of bulls.

Bednarik added that in the short term, based on the 4-hour chart, gold bulls remain under control. The bullish 20 cycle SMA is crossing the 100 cycle SMA around $2410.80 per ounce, as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rebound trend mentioned above. Finally, the technical indicators have lost momentum, but are still close to overbought and have not yet signaled a possible decline.

4-hour chart of spot gold

Bednarik provides the latest important support and resistance levels for gold prices:

Support level: $2438.75 per ounce; 2422.90 US dollars per ounce; 2410.80 USD/oz

Resistance level: 2462.30 USD/oz; 2477.20 US dollars per ounce; 2490.00 USD/oz

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