At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday (August 8th), international oil prices fluctuated narrowly and are currently trading around $2384.98 per ounce. With the rise of US dollar and treasury bond bond yields, the rebound of gold prices on Wednesday was blocked, closing at 2382.85 US dollars/ounce, down about 0.29%. Although the increase of bets on the US interest rate cut in September and the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have brought support, it is still necessary to guard against the possibility of gold prices falling near the 100 day average of 2346.03

The US dollar index rose 0.2% on Wednesday, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds also rose, putting pressure on gold.

Everett Millman, Chief Market Analyst at Gainesville Coins, said, "I believe that if economic data shows that recession concerns are reasonable, then there is likely to be a correction... Gold could hit a record high in the coming months

According to CME FedWatch Tool, last week's weak employment report prompted traders to expect a nearly 105 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, with a 100% chance of a rate cut in September.

The leader of Hezbollah promised on Tuesday to make a "strong and effective" response to Israel's killing of its military commander last week, regardless of the consequences.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "The market will seek confirmation of a slowdown in economic data, particularly in employment, from Thursday's unemployment claims report

Meanwhile, official data on Wednesday showed that the People's Bank of China did not increase its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in July. This slightly suppresses the morale of gold bulls.

In addition, the US stock market closed lower on Wednesday, with technology stocks falling and driving the Nasdaq index down more than 1%, once again triggering market demand for holding coins, and gold also suffered another sell-off.

At the opening of the main stock index, it rose sharply with the rise of technology stocks, but began to lose momentum in afternoon trading. Investors are still feeling nervous after the recent sharp decline in global stock markets.

The three major indexes in the United States all closed lower, with a greater decline before the close. The S&P 500 technology sector closed down 1.4%, causing the biggest drag on the benchmark stock index.

Peter Tuz, President of Chase Investment Counsel, said, "There are many things to worry about in the next eight weeks or so, so I expect greater volatility. I wouldn't be surprised if there were another small-scale sell-off after a few days of gains

Investors have been concerned about the possibility of an economic recession in the United States and the weak financial forecasts of some large American companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 234.21 points, or 0.6%, at 38763.45 points on Wednesday; The S&P 500 index fell 40.53 points, or 0.77%, to 5199.5 points; The Nasdaq index fell 171.05 points, or 1.05%, to 16195.81 points.

Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FX Street, said, "This dramatic volatility in the stock market is a good theme, but it doesn't necessarily... foreshadow a bigger economic disaster, which I don't expect

After the unexpected surge in unemployment rate last Friday, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Monday, believing that the rate cut this year would exceed 125 basis points.

On Wednesday, traders predicted a 100 basis point rate cut this year, with a 62% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, a slight decrease from Monday, which was believed to be a certainty.

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, said, "I think you're going to start hearing people say, hey, let's take a closer look at the details of the labor market and really come to the conclusion that the situation in the United States hasn't really collapsed quickly

The yield of US treasury bond bonds rose on Wednesday after the US Treasury Department's auction of US $42 billion of 10-year treasury bond received weak demand, and as risk appetite improved, enterprises scrambled to issue bonds.

The main focus of this week is supply, and traders are waiting for new economic data to find further clues about the strength of the US economy.

The winning interest rate of 10-year treasury bond auction was 3.96%, which was 3 basis points higher than the yield of treasury bond of the same year in the secondary market before the auction. The bid multiple is 2.32, the lowest since December 2022.

"Investors just don't want to pay for 10-year treasury bond bonds with a yield below 4%," said Vail Hartman, an American interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. This indicates that this trend may continue for some time before buying on dips reappears in a more meaningful way

The issuance of a large number of corporate bonds has also driven up yields. Michael Lorizio, a senior fixed income trader at Manulife Investment Management in Boston, said, "Many issuers suspended their issuance on Monday, and may even have remained inactive yesterday, just to ensure greater clarity on how risky assets will be accepted, and today these issuers are all entering the market to issue bonds

The yield of interest rate sensitive two-year treasury bond rose 1.8 basis points to 4.0034% late Wednesday, and fell to 3.654% on Monday, the lowest since April 2023.

The yield of 10-year treasury bond rose 8 basis points on Wednesday to 3.968%, and fell to 3.667% on Monday, the lowest since June 2023.

The next important US economic data is the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on August 14th. The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 22-24 may also provide new clues for the path of interest rate cuts. This trading day will focus on the change of the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time, and pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve officials.

Investors still need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation. The White House stated that a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is close to being reached, but Iran may reassess whether to launch a military attack on Israel.

On August 7th local time, John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated that despite growing concerns about the outbreak of regional war following the assassination of the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Israel and Hamas are still close to reaching a ceasefire agreement.

According to Politico, US officials say Iran may be reconsidering whether to launch a multi pronged attack on Israel. The Biden administration has been working through diplomatic channels in recent days, sending messages to Tehran through various media that if the explosion that killed Haniya did not kill any Iranian citizens, then Iran should reassess its plans to launch a military attack on Israel. US officials say they do expect Iran to respond in some way to the killing of Haniya, but Tehran seems to have adjusted its attitude and the US does not believe Iran will launch an attack on Israel immediately.

In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the 7th that the Russian military has attacked a Ukrainian oil refinery that provides fuel supply for Ukrainian military weapons and equipment; The Russian military also struck a temporary foreign mercenary base and multiple Ukrainian military units, as well as tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment. The Russian air defense system intercepted 11 Hamas rockets and 87 drones. On the same day, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces issued a war report stating that there was an increase in Russian aviation activity near the border area of Sumy Oblast. On that day, the Russian military dropped about 30 guided bombs in the area. In the directions of Kharkiv, Toletsk, Pokrovsk, etc., the Ukrainian army repelled dozens of Russian attacks, and some battles are still ongoing.

Daily chart of spot gold