On Friday morning (August 9th) in the Asian market, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with US crude oil currently trading at $76.15 per barrel, holding a significant increase for the time being. Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, closing higher for the second consecutive trading day after US employment data eased demand concerns and the Middle East war helped oil prices recover from an eight month low hit on Monday.

Brent crude oil futures closed up $0.83, or 1.06%, on Thursday, settling at $79.16 per barrel. The settlement price of US crude oil futures on Thursday rose by $0.96, or 1.28%, to $76.19 per barrel.

Data shows that the decline in initial jobless claims in the United States last week exceeded expectations, suggesting that concerns about a sharp downturn in the labor market were overblown, which boosted oil prices.

Specific data shows that as of the week ending August 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims in each state decreased by 17000, to 233000 after seasonal adjustment, marking the largest decline in about 11 months. Economists previously predicted that the number of applicants would be 240000.

Meanwhile, the US Department of Commerce reported on Thursday that wholesale inventories in the US increased in June, contributing to economic growth in the second quarter. Wholesale inventory in June was confirmed to have increased by 0.2%. In May, it increased by 0.5%.

Economists had previously predicted that wholesale inventory, an important component of gross domestic product (GDP), would increase by 0.2% in June. Wholesale inventory in June increased by 0.1% year-on-year.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "The latest unemployment data from the United States indicates that the economy is still growing, which reduces some concerns about oil demand

The decline in initial jobless claims in the latest week exceeded expectations, easing concerns about a rapidly weakening labor market. The US stock market surged on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes both closing up more than 2%.

Investors are still digesting the report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Last week, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations. US crude oil inventories have declined for the sixth consecutive week and are currently at their lowest level in six months.

Last week, senior commanders of the radical organizations Hamas and Hezbollah were killed, raising the possibility of Iran retaliating against Israel and exacerbating concerns about supplies from the world's largest oil producing region.

Palestinian medical staff reported that the Israeli military intensified its airstrikes on the Gaza Strip on Thursday, resulting in at least 40 deaths.

According to sources cited by CNN, Hezbollah militants in Lebanon may launch separate strikes against Israel in the coming days. According to reports, it is currently unclear whether Hezbollah in Lebanon is coordinating with Iran regarding possible strikes. At present, based on reports from the United States and Lebanese media, as well as interpretations from Israeli officials, the Hezbollah armed group in Lebanon may strike multiple targets such as the Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel.

On the 8th local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had attacked multiple Israeli military targets using Katyusha rockets, heavy artillery shells, and guided weapons. It is understood that the targets of the attack include the Israeli Iron Dome system launch platform, the Israeli military camp in Zarit, and the Israeli military base in Kafar Shuba.

On the afternoon of the 8th local time, Abdul Malik Houthi, the leader of the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, delivered a speech stating that the Houthi armed forces will launch a counterattack against Israel's airstrikes on the Hodeidah fuel depot and other actions, and relevant countermeasures will soon come.

The UK Maritime Trade Action Office (UKMTO) announced on Thursday that it has received reports of accidents occurring near the coast of the Yemeni port city of Mokha.

The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has also escalated recently, providing momentum for the rise of oil prices.

The fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armies in the Kursk region of Russia entered its third day on Thursday. Previously, the Ukrainian army broke through the Russian border and invaded the region, which was a bold attack on the world's largest nuclear power, forcing Moscow to summon reserve forces.

According to Russian officials, this is one of the largest attacks launched by Ukraine against Russia since the outbreak of the war in February 2022.

On the early morning of August 6th, about 1000 Ukrainian soldiers drove tanks and armored vehicles across the Russian border, with a large number of drones and fierce artillery cover in the air. According to reports, fierce fighting has erupted near Sudzha town, where Russia supplies natural gas to Ukraine, raising concerns about the possibility of a sudden interruption in Russia's natural gas deliveries to Europe.

Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ Bank, said, "Due to the increasing geopolitical risks becoming the focus of market attention, crude oil continues to rebound from its recent decline

Citibank analysts suggest that Brent crude oil may rebound to $80-85.

Investors should also pay attention to the relevant news of the US election. Republican presidential candidate Trump said on Thursday that the US president should have a say in the decisions of the Federal Reserve. This is the clearest sign so far that he intends to infringe upon the independence of the Federal Reserve if he reopens the White House.

I think the president should at least have a say in this regard, "he told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida." I think, as far as I'm concerned, I've made a lot of money, I've been very successful, and I think my intuition is better in many cases than those who are Federal Reserve decision-makers or Federal Reserve chairmen

From a technical perspective, US crude oil recorded a "swallowing" bullish bottom signal near the strong support level of the low point in the past six months, followed closely by the bullish line, rebounded above the 5-day and 10 day moving averages, and the MACD green bar shrank, enhancing the short-term bottoming signal. There is a further rebound opportunity for oil prices in the short term, and it is expected to explore resistance near the 200 day moving average of 78.01. Pay attention to the support around the 10 day moving average of 75.54 and the 5-day moving average of 74.90 below.

Daily chart of major US crude oil contracts

There is relatively little economic data on this trading day. Pay attention to the impact of China's July CPI and PPI data, and keep an eye on changes in US crude oil drilling data and geopolitical news.